Simulating changes in cropping practises in conventional and glyphosate-tolerant maize. I. Effects on weeds.

Herbicide-tolerant (HT) crops such as those tolerant to glyphosate simplify weed management and make it more efficient, at least at short-term. Overreliance on the same herbicide though leads to the spread of resistant weeds. Here, the objective was to evaluate, with simulations, the impact on the advent of glyphosate resistance in weeds of modifications in agricultural practises resulting from introducing HT maize into cropping systems. First, we included a single-gene herbicide resistance submodel in the existing multispecific FLORSYS model. Then, we (1) simulated current conventional and probable HT cropping systems in two European regions, Aquitaine and Catalonia, (2) compared these systems in terms of glyphosate resistance, (3) identified pertinent cultural practises influencing glyphosate resistance, and (4) investigated correlations between cultural practises and species traits, using RLQ analyses. The simulation study showed that, during the analysed 28 years, (1) glyphosate spraying only results in glyphosate resistance in weeds when combined with other cultural factors favouring weed infestation, particularly no till; (2) pre-sowing glyphosate applications select more for herbicide resistance than post-sowing applications on HT crops; and (3) glyphosate spraying selects more for species traits avoiding exposure to the herbicide (e.g. delayed early growth, small leaf area) or compensating for fitness costs (e.g. high harvest index) than for actual resistance to glyphosate, (4) actual resistance is most frequent in species that do not avoid glyphosate, either via plant size or timing, and/or in less competitive species, (5) in case of efficient weed control measures, actual resistance proliferates best in outcrossing species. An advice table was built, with the quantitative, synthetic ranking of the crop management effects in terms of glyphosate-resistance management, identifying the optimal choices for each management technique.