An energetics model of an aquatic predator and its application to life-history optima.

A bioenergetics simulation model of the growth and life history of the aquatic predator Nephelopsis obscura Verrill was developed and validated using both experimentation and sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the model's internal feedbacks resulted in stability similar to homeostatic biological mechanisms. The experimental validation showed the model very accurately predicts growth at 10°C and 15°C but is slightly biased at 20°C. Simulation output was also consistent with the observed data on Nephelopsis from the site from which the simulation input data were obtained and indicated that Nephelopsis growth is more sensitive to prey variation among years than to temperature variation. Although built using data from a population at one extreme of the spectrum observed in life history and growth, the model was able to emulate the growth of Nephelopsis throughout its range. Thus, the variability in size and life history observed in the field can be explained as the result of a plastic phenotype responding to different habitat conditions.