R Contreras-Omaña1, J A Alfaro-Reynoso2, C E Cruz-Chávez3, A Velarde-Ruiz Velasco4, D I Flores-Ramírez2, I Romero-Hernández2, I Donato-Olguín2, X García-Samper5, A Bautista-Santos6, M Reyes-Bastidas7, E Millán-Marín8. 1. Centro de Investigación de enfermedades hepáticas y Gastrointestinales, Área de Hepatología, Pachuca de Soto, Hidalgo, México. Electronic address: centro_investigacion_ehg@hotmail.com. 2. Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo, Instituto de Ciencias de la Salud, Área Académica de Medicina, Pachuca de Soto, Hidalgo, México. 3. Hospital General de Zona y Medicina Familiar N.° 1 IMSS, Pachuca de Soto, Hidalgo, México. 4. Hospital Civil de Guadalajara Fray Antonio Alcalde, Guadalajara, Jalisco, México. 5. Hospital Regional Lic. Adolfo López Mateos ISSSTE, Ciudad de México, México. 6. Centro Médico Nacional Siglo XXI, Ciudad de México, México. 7. Hospital Regional N.° 1 IMSS, Culiacán, Sinaloa, México. 8. Hospital Regional 220 del IMSS, Toluca, Estado de México, México.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The predictive scale for mortality risk in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) proposed by Italy's PNED (Progetto Nazionale Emorragia Digestiva) group has not been validated in Latin America since its original publication. AIM: To compare the PNED system and the Rockall score as mortality predictors in patients hospitalized for NVUGIB. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A multicenter, prospective, cross-sectional, analytic study was conducted that recruited patients diagnosed with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding within the time frame of 2011 to 2015. Six Mexican hospital centers participated in the study. The Rockall and PNED system scores were calculated, classifying the patients as having mild, moderate, or severe disease. The association between mortality and risk was determined through the chi-square test and relative risk (RR) calculation. Statistical significance was set at a P<.05. RESULTS: Information on 198 patients was collected. Only 8 patients (4%) died from causes directly associated with bleeding. According to the Rockall score, 46 patients had severe disease (23.2%), 5 of whom died, with a RR of 5.5 (CI 1.35-22.02, P=.006). In relation to the PNED, only 8 patients had severe disease (4%), 5 of whom died, with a RR of 38.7 (CI 11.4-137.3, P=.001). CONCLUSIONS: The PNED system was more selective for classifying a case as severe, but it had a greater predictive capacity for mortality, compared with the Rockall score.
BACKGROUND: The predictive scale for mortality risk in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) proposed by Italy's PNED (Progetto Nazionale Emorragia Digestiva) group has not been validated in Latin America since its original publication. AIM: To compare the PNED system and the Rockall score as mortality predictors in patients hospitalized for NVUGIB. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A multicenter, prospective, cross-sectional, analytic study was conducted that recruited patients diagnosed with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding within the time frame of 2011 to 2015. Six Mexican hospital centers participated in the study. The Rockall and PNED system scores were calculated, classifying the patients as having mild, moderate, or severe disease. The association between mortality and risk was determined through the chi-square test and relative risk (RR) calculation. Statistical significance was set at a P<.05. RESULTS: Information on 198 patients was collected. Only 8 patients (4%) died from causes directly associated with bleeding. According to the Rockall score, 46 patients had severe disease (23.2%), 5 of whom died, with a RR of 5.5 (CI 1.35-22.02, P=.006). In relation to the PNED, only 8 patients had severe disease (4%), 5 of whom died, with a RR of 38.7 (CI 11.4-137.3, P=.001). CONCLUSIONS: The PNED system was more selective for classifying a case as severe, but it had a greater predictive capacity for mortality, compared with the Rockall score.