| Literature DB >> 28281667 |
Kathryn Willis1, Britta Denise Hardesty2, Lorne Kriwoken1, Chris Wilcox2.
Abstract
Marine debris is a burgeoning global issue with economic, ecological and aesthetic impacts. While there are many studies now addressing this topic, the influence of urbanisation factors such as local population density, stormwater drains and roads on the distribution of coastal litter remains poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we carried out standardized surveys at 224 transect surveys at 67 sites in two estuaries and along the open coast in Tasmania, Australia. We explored the relative support for three hypotheses regarding the sources of the debris; direct deposition by beachgoers, transport from surrounding areas via storm water drains and coastal runoff, and onshore transport from the marine system. We found strong support for all three mechanisms, however, onshore transport from the marine reservoir was the most important mechanism. Overall, the three models together explained 45.8 percent of the variation in our observations. Our results also suggest that most debris released into the marine environment is deposited locally, which may be the answer to where all the missing plastic is in the ocean. Furthermore, local interventions are likely to be most effective in reducing land-based inputs into the ocean.Entities:
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Year: 2017 PMID: 28281667 PMCID: PMC5345086 DOI: 10.1038/srep44479
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Sci Rep ISSN: 2045-2322 Impact factor: 4.379
Figure 1The percentage of different types of debris observed in the Derwent Estuary, Tamar Estuary and the east coast of Tasmania.
Percentages are of total number of debris items observed in respective estuaries and coast.
AIC scores of term combinations for each hypothesis model for the Derwent and Tamar Estuaries.
| Model | Number of Terms | Factors | AIC Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Null | |||
| Stormwater | 1 | no. drain outlets in 5 km | 966.12 |
| 3 | no. drain outlets in 5 km, distance to nearest drain, population in water catchment | 961.58 | |
| Beach Users | 1 | population in 25 km | 965.54 |
| 3 | population in 25 km, distance to public road, population in 5 km | 960.13 | |
| 4 | population in 25 km, distance to public road, population in 5 km, cleanup | 960.13 | |
| 5 | population in 25 km, distance to public road, population in 5 km, cleanup, no. carparks | 960.47 | |
| 6 | population in 25 km, distance to public road, population in 5 km, cleanup, no. carparks, no. people on shore | 962.30 | |
| Marine Transport | 1 | estuary basin | 955.52 |
| 2 | estuary basin, aspect | 953.12 | |
| 3 | estuary basin, estuary side, distance | 927.38 | |
| 5 | estuary basin, estuary side, distance, onshore wind 1500 hrs, aspect | 924.74 | |
| 6 | estuary basin, estuary side, distance, onshore wind 1500 hrs, aspect, mean onshore wind speed | 925.49 | |
| 7 | estuary basin, estuary side, distance, onshore wind 1500 hrs, aspect, mean onshore wind speed, onshore wind 0900 hrs | 927.38 | |
| 8 | estuary basin, estuary side, distance, onshore wind 1500 hrs, aspect, mean onshore wind speed, onshore wind 0900 hrs, on-day wind speed | 923.40 | |
| 9 | estuary basin, estuary side, distance, onshore wind 1500 hrs, aspect, mean onshore wind speed, onshore wind 0900 hrs, on-day wind speed, on-day weather | 923.95 | |
| Physical Characteristics | 1 | substrate | 969.18 |
| 2 | substrate, gradient | 967.69 | |
| Final Full Model |
Each line displays the best AIC score for each combination (i.e. the best score when a single term, two terms, three terms etc. are included in the model). The most parsimonious set of terms for each model are highlighted.
Results of the GAM analysis of the Derwent and Tamar Estuaries final full model.
| Parametric Coefficients | Estimate | Std. Error | z value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | 1.859E + 00 | 6.578E-01 | 2.827 | 0.0047 |
| distance | −2.093E + 00 | 5.432E-01 | −3.854 | 0.0001 |
| estuary side | −1.257E + 00 | 3.124E-01 | −4.024 | 5.73E-05 |
| onshore wind 1500 hrs | 1.745E + 00 | 6.760E-03 | 2.582 | 0.0098 |
| estuary basin | −1.214E + 00 | 2.903E-01 | −4.18 | 2.92E-05 |
| no. drain outlets in 5 km | 3.199E-03 | 1.401E-03 | 2.283 | 0.0224 |
| distance to nearest drain | 1.302E-05 | 2.479E-05 | 0.525 | 0.5994 |
| distance to public road | 2.202E-05 | 1.461E-04 | 0.151 | 0.8802 |
| population in 25 km | −1.243E-07 | 2.972E-07 | −0.418 | 0.6758 |
| rock slab | −1.131E + 00 | 2.991E-01 | −3.781 | 0.0002 |
| sand | −7.706E-02 | 2.523E-01 | −0.305 | 0.7600 |
| marsh | −1.269E + 00 | 3.050E-01 | −4.16 | 3.19E-05 |
| pebble/gravel | 1.297E + 00 | 2.985E-01 | 4.345 | 1.39E-05 |
| gradient | −3.268E-01 | 1.657E-01 | −1.973 | 0.0485 |
| straight | 2.357E-01 | 2.439E-01 | 0.966 | 0.3339 |
| convex | 2.036E-01 | 3.495E-01 | 0.583 | 0.5601 |
| distance * estuary side | 2.683E + 00 | 5.703E-01 | 4.705 | 2.54E-06 |
Figure 2The effect of the number of stormwater drains within 5 km radius of each site has on total amount of debris observed, in the Derwent and Tamar Estuaries.
Each point represents one transect.
Figure 3The effect of estuary basin on the total amount of debris observed.
The Tamar Estuary has less debris than the Derwent Estuary. Along the x-axis, D = Derwent Estuary, T = Tamar Estuary.
AIC scores of term combinations for each hypothesis model for the east coast.
| Model | Number of Terms | Factors | AIC Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Null | |||
| Stormwater | |||
| 2 | population in water catchment, no. drain outlets in 5 km | 158.37 | |
| 3 | population in water catchment, no. drain outlets in 5 km, distance to nearest drain | 151.82 | |
| Beach Users | 1 | distance to public road | 143.08 |
| 3 | distance to public road, cleanup, population in 25 km | 128.96 | |
| 4 | distance to public road, cleanup, population in 25 km, no. carparks | 130.88 | |
| 5 | distance to public road, cleanup, population in 25 km, no. carparks, population in 5 km | 131.75 | |
| 6 | distance to public road, cleanup, population in 25 km, no. carparks, population in 5 km, no. people on shore | 133.70 | |
| Marine Transport | 1 | mean onshore wind speed | 147.93 |
| 2 | mean onshore wind speed, on-day wind speed | 128.16 | |
| 3 | mean onshore wind speed, on-day wind speed, distance | 128.96 | |
| 5 | aspect, onshore wind 0900 hrs, onshore wind 1500 hrs, on-day wind speed, distance | 113.46 | |
| 6 | aspect, onshore wind 0900 hrs, onshore wind 1500 hrs, on-day wind speed, distance, mean onshore wind speed | 114.76 | |
| Physical Characteristics | 1 | substrate | 131.83 |
| 2 | substrate, gradient | 113.99 | |
| Final Full Model |
Each line displays the best AIC score for each combination (i.e. the best score when a single term, two terms, three terms etc. are included in the model). The most parsimonious set of terms for each model are highlighted.
Results of the GAM analysis of the east coast final full model.
| Parametric Coefficients | Estimate | Std. Error | z value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | 3.699E + 01 | 2.678E + 01 | 1.381E + 00 | 0.167 |
| population in water catchment | 2.084E-01 | 1.506E-01 | 1.384E + 00 | 0.166 |
| distance to public road | −5.492E-03 | 2.032E-03 | −2.703E + 00 | 0.007 |
| clean-up | −1.372E + 02 | 2.740E + 07 | 0.000E + 00 | 1.000 |
| aspect | −9.072E-02 | 4.804E-02 | −1.889E + 00 | 0.059 |
| onshore wind 0900 hrs | −5.157E-01 | 2.540E-01 | −2.030E + 00 | 0.430 |
| onshore wind 1500 hrs | −1.602E-01 | 2.520E-01 | −6.360E-01 | 0.525 |
| wind speed | −5.252E-01 | 6.659E-01 | −7.890E-01 | 0.430 |
| sand | −1.309E + 00 | 6.766E-01 | −1.934E + 00 | 0.339 |
| rock slab | −5.755E-01 | 6.020E-01 | −9.560E-01 | 0.053 |
| gradient | −3.262E-01 | 4.933E-01 | 0.000E + 00 | 0.508 |
| straight | 2.343E-01 | 1.422E + 00 | 1.650E-01 | 0.869 |
| convex | 1.705E + 00 | 8.845E-01 | 1.927E + 00 | 0.054 |
Figure 4The effect the distance a site is from a public road has on the total amount of debris observed along the east coast of Tasmania.
Each point represents one transect.
Figure 5Survey sites in the Derwent Estuary, Tamar Estuary and east coast, Tasmania, Australia.
Generated by Kathryn Willis using ArcGIS, [Desktop version 10.2.], (https://www.arcgis.com/features/index.html). LIST Coastline (MHWM) from theLIST ©State of Tasmania (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia License, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/legalcode).