Taking climate, land use, and social economy into estimation of carbon budget in the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region of China.

Carbon sequestration is an indispensable ecosystem service provided by soil and vegetation, so mapping and valuing the carbon budget by considering both ecological and social factors is an important trend in evaluating ecosystem services. In this work, we established multiple scenarios to evaluate the impacts of land use change, population growth, carbon emission per capita, and carbon markets on carbon budget. We quantified carbon sinks (aboveground and belowground) under different scenarios, using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model and an improved carbon cycle process model, and studied carbon sources caused by human activities by analyzing the spatial distribution of human population and carbon emission per capita. We also assessed the net present value (NPV) for carbon budgets under different carbon price and discount rate scenarios using NPV model. Our results indicate that the carbon budget of Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region is surplus: Carbon sinks range from 1.50 × 1010 to 1.54 × 1010 t, while carbon sources caused by human activities range from 2.76 × 105 to 7.60 × 105 t. And the NPV for carbon deficits range from 3.20 × 1011 RMB to 1.52 × 1012 RMB. From the perspective of ecological management, deforestation, urban sprawl, population growth, and excessive carbon consumption are considered as the main challenges in balancing carbon sources and sinks. Levying carbon tax would be a considerable option when decision maker develops carbon emission reduction policies. Our results provide a scientific and credible reference for harmonious and sustainable development in the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region of China.