Gareth J Padfield1, Christian Steinberg1, Janice Swampillai1, Hong Qian2, Stuart J Connolly3, Paul Dorian4, Martin S Green5, Karin H Humphries1, George J Klein6, Robert Sheldon7, Mario Talajic8, Charles R Kerr9. 1. University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. 2. Centre for Health Evaluation & Outcome Sciences, UBC, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. 3. McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. 4. University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. 5. University of Ottawa Heart Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. 6. Western University, London, Ontario, Canada. 7. University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada. 8. Montreal Heart Institute, Montreal, Quebec, Canada. 9. University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Electronic address: c-man1@shaw.ca.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Progression from paroxysmal to persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) has important clinical implications and is relevant to the management of patients with AF. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to define the long-term rate of progression from paroxysmal to persistent AF and the relevant clinical variables. METHODS: The Canadian Registry of Atrial Fibrillation enrolled patients after a first electrocardiographic diagnosis of paroxysmal AF. Associations between baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes were evaluated using a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model and a competing risk model accounting for death as a competing risk, where appropriate. RESULTS: We enrolled 755 patients (61.7% men) aged between 14 and 91 years (mean age 61.2 ± 14.2 years). The median follow-up was 6.35 years (interquartile range 2.93-10.04 years), with a rate of progression to persistent AF at 1, 5, and 10 years was 8.6%, 24.3%, and 36.3%, respectively. All-cause mortality was 30.3% at 10 years. Factors associated with AF progression were increasing age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23-1.60, for each 10-year increment), mitral regurgitation (HR 1.87; 95% CI 1.28-2.73), left atrial dilatation (HR 3.01; 95% CI 2.03-4.47), aortic stenosis (HR 2.40; 95% CI 1.05-5.48), and left ventricular hypertrophy (HR .47; 95% CI 1.04-2.08). Factors associated with a lower rate of progression were a faster heart rate during AF (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.92-0.96 per 5-beat/min increment) and angina (HR 0.54; 95% CI 0.38-0.77). After accounting for death as a competing risk, left ventricular hypertrophy and aortic stenosis were no longer significant. CONCLUSION: Within 10 years of presenting with paroxysmal AF, >50% of patients will progress to persistent AF or be dead. Increasing age, mitral regurgitation, aortic stenosis, left ventricular hypertrophy, and left atrial dilatation were associated with progression to persistent AF.
BACKGROUND: Progression from paroxysmal to persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) has important clinical implications and is relevant to the management of patients with AF. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to define the long-term rate of progression from paroxysmal to persistent AF and the relevant clinical variables. METHODS: The Canadian Registry of Atrial Fibrillation enrolled patients after a first electrocardiographic diagnosis of paroxysmal AF. Associations between baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes were evaluated using a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model and a competing risk model accounting for death as a competing risk, where appropriate. RESULTS: We enrolled 755 patients (61.7% men) aged between 14 and 91 years (mean age 61.2 ± 14.2 years). The median follow-up was 6.35 years (interquartile range 2.93-10.04 years), with a rate of progression to persistent AF at 1, 5, and 10 years was 8.6%, 24.3%, and 36.3%, respectively. All-cause mortality was 30.3% at 10 years. Factors associated with AF progression were increasing age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23-1.60, for each 10-year increment), mitral regurgitation (HR 1.87; 95% CI 1.28-2.73), left atrial dilatation (HR 3.01; 95% CI 2.03-4.47), aortic stenosis (HR 2.40; 95% CI 1.05-5.48), and left ventricular hypertrophy (HR .47; 95% CI 1.04-2.08). Factors associated with a lower rate of progression were a faster heart rate during AF (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.92-0.96 per 5-beat/min increment) and angina (HR 0.54; 95% CI 0.38-0.77). After accounting for death as a competing risk, left ventricular hypertrophy and aortic stenosis were no longer significant. CONCLUSION: Within 10 years of presenting with paroxysmal AF, >50% of patients will progress to persistent AF or be dead. Increasing age, mitral regurgitation, aortic stenosis, left ventricular hypertrophy, and left atrial dilatation were associated with progression to persistent AF.
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