Dana J T Bruden1, Brian J McMahon1,2, Lisa Townshend-Bulson2, Prabhu Gounder1, Jim Gove2, Julia Plotnik2, Chriss Homan2, Annette Hewitt2, Youssef Barbour2, Philip R Spradling3, Brenna C Simons2, Susan McArdle4, Michael Bruce1. 1. Arctic Investigations Program, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Disease, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Anchorage, Alaska. 2. Liver Disease and Hepatitis Program, Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium, Anchorage, Alaska. 3. Division of Viral Hepatitis, National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia. 4. University of Washington, Department of Virology, School of Medicine, Seattle, Washington.
Abstract
Long-term prospective studies of the outcomes associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are rare and critical for assessing the potential impact of HCV treatment. Using liver biopsy as a starting point, we analyzed the development of end-stage liver disease (ESLD), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver-related death (LRD) according to fibrosis stage among a cohort of American Indian/Alaska Native persons in Alaska. Persons were classified as having no/mild (Ishak = 0,1), moderate (Ishak = 2), or severe (Ishak = 3,4) fibrosis or cirrhosis (Ishak = 5,6). We examined time until development of ESLD, HCC, and LRD and report survival probabilities at 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. Of 407 persons, 39% (n = 150) had no/mild fibrosis, 32% (n = 131) had moderate fibrosis, 22% (n = 88) had severe fibrosis, and 9% (n = 38) had cirrhosis. The average time of follow-up was 7.3 years. Within 5 years of biopsy, 1.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.4-6.8) of persons with no/mild fibrosis developed ESLD compared with 7.9% (95% CI, 4.0-15.2), 16.4% (95% CI, 9.6-27.2), and 49.0% (95% CI, 33.0-67.7) with moderate, severe fibrosis, and cirrhosis, respectively (P < 0.01). The 5-year outcome of HCC was 1.0% (95% CI, 0.1-7.0), 1.0% (95% CI, 0.1-6.6), 1.1% (95% CI, 0.2-7.7), and 13.4% (95% CI, 4.4-36.7) among persons with no/mild fibrosis, moderate fibrosis, severe fibrosis, and cirrhosis, respectively (P < 0.01). Five years after biopsy, 0.0% (95% CI, 0.0-14.8) of persons with no/mild fibrosis had suffered an LRD compared with 1.0% (95% CI, 0.2-7.5) of persons with moderate fibrosis, 4.7% (95% CI, 1.5-14.1) with severe fibrosis, and 16.3% (95% CI, 7.0-35.1) with cirrhosis (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: For prevention of HCC, LRD, and ESLD in the short term, HCV therapy should target individuals who have more than mild fibrosis. (Hepatology 2017;66:37-45).
Long-term prospective studies of the outcomes associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are rare and critical for assessing the potential impact of HCV treatment. Using liver biopsy as a starting point, we analyzed the development of end-stage liver disease (ESLD), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver-related death (LRD) according to fibrosis stage among a cohort of American Indian/Alaska Native persons in Alaska. Persons were classified as having no/mild (Ishak = 0,1), moderate (Ishak = 2), or severe (Ishak = 3,4) fibrosis or cirrhosis (Ishak = 5,6). We examined time until development of ESLD, HCC, and LRD and report survival probabilities at 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. Of 407 persons, 39% (n = 150) had no/mild fibrosis, 32% (n = 131) had moderate fibrosis, 22% (n = 88) had severe fibrosis, and 9% (n = 38) had cirrhosis. The average time of follow-up was 7.3 years. Within 5 years of biopsy, 1.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.4-6.8) of persons with no/mild fibrosis developed ESLD compared with 7.9% (95% CI, 4.0-15.2), 16.4% (95% CI, 9.6-27.2), and 49.0% (95% CI, 33.0-67.7) with moderate, severe fibrosis, and cirrhosis, respectively (P < 0.01). The 5-year outcome of HCC was 1.0% (95% CI, 0.1-7.0), 1.0% (95% CI, 0.1-6.6), 1.1% (95% CI, 0.2-7.7), and 13.4% (95% CI, 4.4-36.7) among persons with no/mild fibrosis, moderate fibrosis, severe fibrosis, and cirrhosis, respectively (P < 0.01). Five years after biopsy, 0.0% (95% CI, 0.0-14.8) of persons with no/mild fibrosis had suffered an LRD compared with 1.0% (95% CI, 0.2-7.5) of persons with moderate fibrosis, 4.7% (95% CI, 1.5-14.1) with severe fibrosis, and 16.3% (95% CI, 7.0-35.1) with cirrhosis (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: For prevention of HCC, LRD, and ESLD in the short term, HCV therapy should target individuals who have more than mild fibrosis. (Hepatology 2017;66:37-45).
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