A multi-criteria approach to identify favorable areas for goat production systems in Veracruz, México.

This research identifies favorable areas for goat production systems in the state of Veracruz, Mexico. Through the use of the analytic hierarchy process, layers of biophysical and soil information were combined to generate a model of favorability. Model validation was performed by calculating the area under the curve, the true skill statistic, and a qualitative comparison with census records. The results showed the existence of regions with high (4494.3 km2) and moderate (2985.8 km2) favorability, and these areas correspond to 6.25 and 4.15%, respectively, of the state territory and are located in the regions of Sierra de Huayacocotla, Perote, and Orizaba. These regions are characterized as mountainous and having predominantly temperate-wet or cold climates, and having montane mesophilic forests, containing pine, fir, and desert scrub. The reliability of the distribution model was supported by the area under the curve value (0.96), the true skill statistic (0.86), and consistency with census records.