Literature DB >> 28154047

Predicting armed conflict: Time to adjust our expectations?

Lars-Erik Cederman1, Nils B Weidmann2.   

Abstract

This Essay provides an introduction to the general challenges of predicting political violence, particularly compared with predicting other types of events (such as earthquakes). What is possible? What is less realistic? We aim to debunk myths about predicting violence, as well as to illustrate the substantial progress in this field.
Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Mesh：

Year:  2017        PMID： 28154047     DOI： 10.1126/science.aal4483

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Science        ISSN： 0036-8075            Impact factor:   47.728


  10 in total

1.  Harvesting Social Signals to Inform Peace Processes Implementation and Monitoring.

Authors:  Aastha Nigam; Henry K Dambanemuya; Madhav Joshi; Nitesh V Chawla
Journal:  Big Data       Date:  2017-12       Impact factor: 2.128

2.  Modelling armed conflict risk under climate change with machine learning and time-series data.

Authors:  Quansheng Ge; Mengmeng Hao; Fangyu Ding; Dong Jiang; Jürgen Scheffran; David Helman; Tobias Ide
Journal:  Nat Commun       Date:  2022-05-20       Impact factor: 17.694

3.  Mobile phone data reveal the effects of violence on internal displacement in Afghanistan.

Authors:  Xiao Hui Tai; Shikhar Mehra; Joshua E Blumenstock
Journal:  Nat Hum Behav       Date:  2022-05-12

4.  Correlations and forecast of death tolls in the Syrian conflict.

Authors:  Kazuki Fujita; Shigeru Shinomoto; Luis E C Rocha
Journal:  Sci Rep       Date:  2017-11-16       Impact factor: 4.379

5.  Trends and fluctuations in the severity of interstate wars.

Authors:  Aaron Clauset
Journal:  Sci Adv       Date:  2018-02-21       Impact factor: 14.136

6.  Future Protest Made Risky: Examining Social Media Based Civil Unrest Prediction Research and Products.

Authors:  Gabriel Grill
Journal:  Comput Support Coop Work       Date:  2021-09-08       Impact factor: 1.825

7.  Providing social assistance and humanitarian relief: The case for embracing uncertainty.

Authors:  Matteo Caravani; Jeremy Lind; Rachel Sabates-Wheeler; Ian Scoones
Journal:  Dev Policy Rev       Date:  2022-04-09

8.  Simulating the Linkages Between Economy and Armed Conflict in India With a Long Short-Term Memory Algorithm.

Authors:  Mengmeng Hao; Jingying Fu; Dong Jiang; Fangyu Ding; Shuai Chen
Journal:  Risk Anal       Date:  2020-03-13       Impact factor: 4.000

9.  Fundamental patterns and predictions of event size distributions in modern wars and terrorist campaigns.

Authors:  Michael Spagat; Neil F Johnson; Stijn van Weezel
Journal:  PLoS One       Date:  2018-10-17       Impact factor: 3.240

10.  Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration.

Authors:  Matthew J Salganik; Ian Lundberg; Alexander T Kindel; Caitlin E Ahearn; Khaled Al-Ghoneim; Abdullah Almaatouq; Drew M Altschul; Jennie E Brand; Nicole Bohme Carnegie; Ryan James Compton; Debanjan Datta; Thomas Davidson; Anna Filippova; Connor Gilroy; Brian J Goode; Eaman Jahani; Ridhi Kashyap; Antje Kirchner; Stephen McKay; Allison C Morgan; Alex Pentland; Kivan Polimis; Louis Raes; Daniel E Rigobon; Claudia V Roberts; Diana M Stanescu; Yoshihiko Suhara; Adaner Usmani; Erik H Wang; Muna Adem; Abdulla Alhajri; Bedoor AlShebli; Redwane Amin; Ryan B Amos; Lisa P Argyle; Livia Baer-Bositis; Moritz Büchi; Bo-Ryehn Chung; William Eggert; Gregory Faletto; Zhilin Fan; Jeremy Freese; Tejomay Gadgil; Josh Gagné; Yue Gao; Andrew Halpern-Manners; Sonia P Hashim; Sonia Hausen; Guanhua He; Kimberly Higuera; Bernie Hogan; Ilana M Horwitz; Lisa M Hummel; Naman Jain; Kun Jin; David Jurgens; Patrick Kaminski; Areg Karapetyan; E H Kim; Ben Leizman; Naijia Liu; Malte Möser; Andrew E Mack; Mayank Mahajan; Noah Mandell; Helge Marahrens; Diana Mercado-Garcia; Viola Mocz; Katariina Mueller-Gastell; Ahmed Musse; Qiankun Niu; William Nowak; Hamidreza Omidvar; Andrew Or; Karen Ouyang; Katy M Pinto; Ethan Porter; Kristin E Porter; Crystal Qian; Tamkinat Rauf; Anahit Sargsyan; Thomas Schaffner; Landon Schnabel; Bryan Schonfeld; Ben Sender; Jonathan D Tang; Emma Tsurkov; Austin van Loon; Onur Varol; Xiafei Wang; Zhi Wang; Julia Wang; Flora Wang; Samantha Weissman; Kirstie Whitaker; Maria K Wolters; Wei Lee Woon; James Wu; Catherine Wu; Kengran Yang; Jingwen Yin; Bingyu Zhao; Chenyun Zhu; Jeanne Brooks-Gunn; Barbara E Engelhardt; Moritz Hardt; Dean Knox; Karen Levy; Arvind Narayanan; Brandon M Stewart; Duncan J Watts; Sara McLanahan
Journal:  Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A       Date:  2020-03-30       Impact factor: 11.205
  10 in total

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