Evaluating realized seed dispersal across fragmented tropical landscapes: a two-fold approach using parentage analysis and the neighbourhood model.

Despite the importance of seed dispersal for survival of plant species in fragmented landscapes, data on seed dispersal at landscape scales remain sparse. Effective seed dispersal among fragments determines recolonization and plant species persistence in such landscapes. We present the first large-scale (216-km2 ) direct estimates of realized seed dispersal of a high-value timber tree (Dysoxylum malabaricum) across an agro-forest landscape in the Western Ghats, India. Based upon an exhaustive inventory of adult trees and a sample of 488 seedlings all genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci, we estimated realized seed dispersal using parentage analysis and the neighbourhood model. Our estimates found that most realized seed dispersal was within 200 m, which is insufficient to effectively bridge the distances between forest patches. We conclude that using mobility of putative animal dispersers can be misleading when estimating tropical tree species vulnerability to habitat fragmentation. This raises serious concerns about the potential of many tropical trees to recolonize isolated forest patches where high-value tree species have already been removed.