Lu Hao1, Jun Pan1, Dan Wang1, Ya-Wei Bi1, Jun-Tao Ji2, Lei Xin1,2, Zhuan Liao1,2, Ting-Ting Du1, Jin-Huan Lin1, Di Zhang1, Xiang-Peng Zeng1, Bo Ye3, Wen-Bin Zou1, Hui Chen1,2, Ting Xie4, Bai-Rong Li5, Zhao-Hong Zheng6, Liang-Hao Hu1,2, Zhao-Shen Li1,2. 1. Department of Gastroenterology, Changhai Hospital, The Second Military Medical University, Shanghai, China. 2. Digestive Endoscopy Center, Changhai Hospital, The Second Military Medical University, Shanghai, China. 3. Department of Surgery, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing, China. 4. Department of Gastroenterology, Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University, Nanjing, China. 5. Department of Gastroenterology, Air Force General Hospital, Beijing, China. 6. Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Jiangdu Hospital, Yangzhou, China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM: Pancreatic pseudocyst is a common complication of chronic pancreatitis. The identification of risk factors and development of a nomogram for pancreatic pseudocysts in chronic pancreatitis patients may contribute to the early diagnosis and intervention of pancreatic pseudocysts. METHODS: Patients with chronic pancreatitis admitted to our center from January 2000 to December 2013 were enrolled. Cumulative rates of pancreatic pseudocysts after the onset of chronic pancreatitis and after the diagnosis of chronic pancreatitis were calculated. Patients were randomly assigned, in a 2:1 ratio, to the training and validation cohort. Based on the training cohort, risk factors were identified through Cox proportional hazards regression model, and nomogram was developed. Internal and external validations were performed based on the training and validation cohort, respectively. RESULTS: With a total of 1998 patients, pancreatic pseudocysts were detected in 228 (11.41%) patients. Age at the onset of chronic pancreatitis, smoking, and severe acute pancreatitis were identified risk factors for pancreatic pseudocysts development while steatorrhea and pancreatic stones were protective factors. Incorporating these five factors, the nomogram achieved good concordance indexes of 0.735 and 0.628 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, with well-fitted calibration curves. CONCLUSION: The nomogram achieved an individualized prediction of pancreatic pseudocysts development in chronic pancreatitis. It may help the early diagnosis and management of pancreatic pseudocysts.
BACKGROUND AND AIM: Pancreatic pseudocyst is a common complication of chronic pancreatitis. The identification of risk factors and development of a nomogram for pancreatic pseudocysts in chronic pancreatitispatients may contribute to the early diagnosis and intervention of pancreatic pseudocysts. METHODS:Patients with chronic pancreatitis admitted to our center from January 2000 to December 2013 were enrolled. Cumulative rates of pancreatic pseudocysts after the onset of chronic pancreatitis and after the diagnosis of chronic pancreatitis were calculated. Patients were randomly assigned, in a 2:1 ratio, to the training and validation cohort. Based on the training cohort, risk factors were identified through Cox proportional hazards regression model, and nomogram was developed. Internal and external validations were performed based on the training and validation cohort, respectively. RESULTS: With a total of 1998 patients, pancreatic pseudocysts were detected in 228 (11.41%) patients. Age at the onset of chronic pancreatitis, smoking, and severe acute pancreatitis were identified risk factors for pancreatic pseudocysts development while steatorrhea and pancreatic stones were protective factors. Incorporating these five factors, the nomogram achieved good concordance indexes of 0.735 and 0.628 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, with well-fitted calibration curves. CONCLUSION: The nomogram achieved an individualized prediction of pancreatic pseudocysts development in chronic pancreatitis. It may help the early diagnosis and management of pancreatic pseudocysts.