Tom Kai Ming Wang1, Michael Tzu Min Wang2, Greg D Gamble2, Mark Webster3, Peter N Ruygrok4. 1. Green Lane Cardiovascular Service, Auckland City Hospital, Auckland, New Zealand; Department of Medicine, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand. Electronic address: TWang@adhb.govt.nz. 2. Department of Medicine, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand. 3. Green Lane Cardiovascular Service, Auckland City Hospital, Auckland, New Zealand. 4. Green Lane Cardiovascular Service, Auckland City Hospital, Auckland, New Zealand; Department of Medicine, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is considered for severe aortic valve disease at high and now intermediate risk for surgical aortic valve replacement. Risk stratification plays a critical role decision-making for intervention and modality. We compared the prognostic utility of surgical risk scores for TAVI in this meta-analysis. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane and Web of Science databases from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2015 were searched. Studies were systematically reviewed for inclusion, and data extracted for pooled analyses. RESULTS: Amongst 1688 articles searched, 47 full-text articles were screened and 24 studies (12,346 TAVI cases) included for analyses. Pooled c-statistics (95% confidence interval) for operative mortality were EuroSCORE 0.62 (0.57-0.67), EuroSCORE II 0.62 (0.59-0.66), STS Score 0.62 (0.59-0.65). Pooled calibration odds ratios (95%CI) were EuroSCORE 0.31 (0.25-0.38), EuroSCORE II 1.26 (1.06-1.51), STS 0.95 (0.72-1.27). C-statistics (95%CI) for 1-year mortality were EuroSCORE 0.62 (0.57-0.67), EuroSCORE II 0.66 (0.61-0.71) and STS Score 0.58 (0.53-0.64). CONCLUSION: Surgical risk scores at most modestly discriminated operative and 1-year mortality. The EuroSCORE grossly over-estimated operative mortality while the EuroSCORE II and STS Scores fitted better to TAVI outcomes with their own limitations. There is a need for the development and validation of TAVI-specific risk models.
BACKGROUND: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is considered for severe aortic valve disease at high and now intermediate risk for surgical aortic valve replacement. Risk stratification plays a critical role decision-making for intervention and modality. We compared the prognostic utility of surgical risk scores for TAVI in this meta-analysis. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane and Web of Science databases from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2015 were searched. Studies were systematically reviewed for inclusion, and data extracted for pooled analyses. RESULTS: Amongst 1688 articles searched, 47 full-text articles were screened and 24 studies (12,346 TAVI cases) included for analyses. Pooled c-statistics (95% confidence interval) for operative mortality were EuroSCORE 0.62 (0.57-0.67), EuroSCORE II 0.62 (0.59-0.66), STS Score 0.62 (0.59-0.65). Pooled calibration odds ratios (95%CI) were EuroSCORE 0.31 (0.25-0.38), EuroSCORE II 1.26 (1.06-1.51), STS 0.95 (0.72-1.27). C-statistics (95%CI) for 1-year mortality were EuroSCORE 0.62 (0.57-0.67), EuroSCORE II 0.66 (0.61-0.71) and STS Score 0.58 (0.53-0.64). CONCLUSION: Surgical risk scores at most modestly discriminated operative and 1-year mortality. The EuroSCORE grossly over-estimated operative mortality while the EuroSCORE II and STS Scores fitted better to TAVI outcomes with their own limitations. There is a need for the development and validation of TAVI-specific risk models.