| Literature DB >> 28083097 |
Gustavo S Betini1, Jordan Roszell1, Andreas Heyland1, John M Fryxell1.
Abstract
Predicting the ecological responses to climate change is particularly challenging, because organisms might be affected simultaneously by the synergistic effects of multiple environmental stressors. Global warming is often accompanied by declining calcium concentration in many freshwater ecosystems. Although there is growing evidence that these changes in water chemistry and thermal conditions can influence ecosystem dynamics, little information is currently available about how these synergistic environmental stressors could influence the behaviour of aquatic organisms. Here, we tested whether the combined effects of calcium and temperature affect movement parameters (average speed, mean turning frequency and mean-squared displacement) of the planktonic Daphnia magna, using a full factorial design and exposing Daphnia individuals to a range of realistic levels of temperature and calcium concentration. We found that movement increased with both temperature and calcium concentration, but temperature effects became considerably weaker when individuals were exposed to calcium levels close to survival limits documented for several Daphnia species, signalling a strong interaction effect. These results support the notion that changes in water chemistry might have as strong an effect as projected changes in temperature on movement rates of Daphnia, suggesting that even sublethal levels of calcium decline could have a considerable impact on the dynamics of freshwater ecosystems.Entities:
Keywords: Daphnia magna; aquatic systems; climate change; diffusion; turn rates; velocity; zooplankton
Year: 2016 PMID: 28083097 PMCID: PMC5210679 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.160537
Source DB: PubMed Journal: R Soc Open Sci ISSN: 2054-5703 Impact factor: 2.963
Akaike's information criterion (AIC) parameters for competing models used to explain variation in movement behaviour of D. magna exposed to different calcium and temperature treatments. d.f., degrees of freedom; LogLik, log-likelihood value of each model; AICc, AIC corrected for small samples; ΔAICc, difference for model relative to the smallest AICc in the model set; w, Akaike weight, which is the approximate probability in favour of the given model from the set of models considered.
| model | d.f. | LogLik | AICc | ΔAIC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mean-squared displacement | |||||
| 1. Calcium × temperature | 6 | −846.003 | 1704.6 | 0.00 | 0.999 |
| 2. Calcium + temperature | 5 | −854.964 | 1720.3 | 15.76 | 0.000 |
| 3. Calcium | 4 | −855.377 | 1719.0 | 14.46 | 0.001 |
| 4. Temperature | 4 | −907.874 | 1824.0 | 119.45 | 0.000 |
| average speed | |||||
| 1. Calcium × temperature | 6 | 72.331 | −132.1 | 0.00 | 0.994 |
| 2. Calcium + temperature | 5 | 66.057 | −121.7 | 10.39 | 0.006 |
| 3. Calcium | 4 | 59.334 | −110.4 | 21.70 | 0.000 |
| 4. Temperature | 4 | −2.348 | 13.0 | 145.07 | 0.000 |
| mean turning frequency | |||||
| 1. Calcium × temperature | 6 | 507.796 | −1003.0 | 1.59 | 0.198 |
| 2. Calcium + temperature | 5 | 507.327 | −1004.3 | 0.37 | 0.365 |
| 3. Calcium | 4 | 506.444 | −1004.6 | 0.00 | 0.438 |
| 4. Temperature | 4 | 430.718 | −853.2 | 151.45 | 0.000 |
Parameter estimate, lower and upper values of the 95% confidence intervals for the most parsimonious model used to explain movement behaviour in D. magna. Models were selected using AIC model competition.
| model | lower | estimate | upper |
|---|---|---|---|
| mean-squared displacement | |||
| 1. Intercept | −15.10 | 11.90 | 38.91 |
| 2. Ca × temperature | 0.18 | 0.34 | 0.50 |
| 3. Calcium | −6.15 | −2.65 | 0.85 |
| 4. Temperature | −1.84 | −0.64 | 0.56 |
| speed | |||
| 1. Intercept | −1.37 × 10−1 | −2.69 × 10−3 | 1.32 × 10−1 |
| 2. Ca × temperature | 3.82 × 10−4 | 8.45 × 10−4 | 1.31 × 10−3 |
| 3. Calcium | −1.05 × 10−2 | −1.478 × 10−4 | 1.02 × 10−2 |
| 4. Temperature | −3.44 × 10−3 | 2.57 × 10−3 | 8.57 × 10−3 |
| mean turning frequency | |||
| 1. Intercept | 7.07 × 10−2 | 7.31 × 10−2 | 7.55 × 10−2 |
| 3. Calcium | −1.30 × 10−3 | −1.16 × 10−3 | −1.03 × 10−3 |
Figure 1.Conditional plots illustrate the effect of calcium and temperature on the movement of D. magna. Conditional plots were calculated from the models with (a) mean-squared displacement, (b) average speed or (c) mean turning frequency as response variables, and the interaction between temperature and calcium as explanatory variable. According to Akaike's information criterion, variation in mean turning frequency was equally explained by the model with the interaction and the model with only calcium as explanatory variable. Dots represent partial residuals, black lines are prediction lines and grey-shaded areas are confidence intervals based onthe model.