Toward a model for improved targeting of aged at risk of institutionalization.

A national sample of institutionalized and noninstitutionalized aged was created by merging the 1977 National Nursing Home Survey and its counterpart, the National Health Interview Survey for the same year. A weighted logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify factors that might be useful in calculating home- and community-based long-term care clients' risk of institutionalization. A model containing patient characteristics, nursing home bed supply, and a climate variable correctly classified 98.2 percent of cases residing in nursing homes or the community. Physical dependency, mental disorder and degenerative disease, lack of spouse, being white, poverty, old age, unoccupied nursing home beds, and climate all appear to be determinants of institutional residency among the aged.