Climate, female traits and population features as drivers of breeding timing in Mediterranean red deer populations.

Understanding the factors that lead to variation in the timing of breeding in widespread species such as red deer (Cervus elaphus) is crucial to predict possible responses of wild populations to different climate scenarios. Here, we sought to further understand the causes of inter-annual variation in the reproduction timing of female deer in Mediterranean environments. An integrative approach was used to identify the relative importance of individual, population and climate traits in the date of conception of free-ranging deer, based on a dataset of 829 hinds culled during 12 years. We found that a population trait, density, was the most important factor explaining the variation in conception dates, with greater densities causing later conception dates. Body mass was the second in importance, with heavier females conceiving earlier than lighter ones. Almost equally important was the spring real bioclimatic index, a measure of plant productivity, causing later conception dates in the least productive springs (drier and hotter). Another climatic component, the end of summer drought, showed that the sooner the autumn arrives (greater rainfalls and cooler temperatures) the earlier the conception dates. Interestingly, age class was found to be a minor factor in determining conception date. Only older females (≥10 years old) conceived significantly later, suggesting reproductive senescence. This study highlights not only the importance of population and individual traits but also the influence of climatic parameters on the deer reproductive cycle in Mediterranean environments, giving valuable insight into how reproductive phenology may respond to seasonality and global climate changes.