| Literature DB >> 27940911 |
Lei Xu1,2, Leif C Stige2, Kung-Sik Chan3, Jie Zhou4, Jun Yang1, Shaowei Sang1, Ming Wang5, Zhicong Yang5, Ziqiang Yan5, Tong Jiang6, Liang Lu1, Yujuan Yue1, Xiaobo Liu1, Hualiang Lin7, Jianguo Xu8, Qiyong Liu8,9,10, Nils Chr Stenseth11.
Abstract
Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005-2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics-years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies.Entities:
Keywords: climate; dengue; prediction; structural equation model; zero-inflated generalized additive models
Mesh：
Year: 2016 PMID： 27940911 PMCID： PMC5224358 DOI： 10.1073/pnas.1618558114
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ISSN： 0027-8424 Impact factor: 11.205