The development of a quantitative scoring system to predict whether a large-to-massive rotator cuff tear can be arthroscopically repaired.

AIMS: The aim of the study was to develop a quantitative scoring system to predict whether a large-to-massive rotator cuff tear was arthroscopically reparable prior to surgery. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective review of the pre-operative MR imaging and surgical records of 87 patients (87 shoulders) who underwent arthroscopic repair of a large-to-massive rotator cuff tear. Patients were divided into two groups, based on the surgical outcome of the repair. Of the 87 patients, 53 underwent complete repair (Group I) and 34 an incomplete repair (Group II). Pre-operative MR images were reviewed to quantify several variables. Between-group differences were evaluated and multiple logistic regression analysis was used to calculate the predictive value of significant variables. The reparability index (RI) was constructed using the odds ratios of significant variables and a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis performed to identify the optimal RI cutoff to differentiate between the two groups.
RESULTS: The following variables were identified as independent predictors of arthroscopic reparability: the size of the defect with medial-lateral diameter (cutoff, 4.2 cm) and anterior-posterior diameter (cutoff, 3.7cm); Patte's grade of muscle atrophy (cutoff, grade 3) and Goutallier grade of fatty degeneration (cutoff, grade 3). An RI cutoff value of 2.5 provided the highest differentiation between groups I and II, with an area under the curve of 0.964, and a sensitivity of 73.5% and specificity of 96.2%.
CONCLUSION: The RI developed in our study may prove to be an efficient clinical scoring system to predict whether a large-to-massive rotator cuff tear is arthroscopically reparable. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:1656-61. ©2016 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.