Long-term spatio-temporal dynamics of the mosquito Aedes aegypti in temperate Argentina.

Buenos Aires city is located near the southern limit of the distribution of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae). This study aimed to assess long-term variations in the abundance of Ae. aegypti in Buenos Aires in relation to changes in climatic conditions. Ae. aegypti weekly oviposition activity was analyzed and compared through nine warm seasons from 1998 to 2014, with 200 ovitraps placed across the whole extension of the city. The temporal and spatial dynamics of abundances were compared among seasons, and their relation with climatic variables were analyzed. Results showed a trend to higher peak abundances, a higher number of infested sites, and longer duration of the oviposition season through subsequent years, consistent with a long-term colonization process. In contrast, thermal favorability and rainfall pattern did not show a consistent trend of changes. The long-term increase in abundance, and the recently documented expansion of Ae. aegypti to colder areas of Buenos Aires province suggest that local populations might be adapting to lower temperature conditions. The steadily increasing abundances may have implications on the risk of dengue transmission.