Use of the exercise test to predict prognosis after coronary artery bypass grafting.

The objective of this study was to predict the prognosis of patients who become symptomatic after having undergone coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) using clinical and exercise test responses. A retrospective analysis was performed of all veterans referred for clinical indications to a Veterans Administration Medical Center for a treadmill test after having undergone CABG. Of 2,044 patients who were exercise tested from April 1984 to May 1987, 296 had previously undergone CABG. Clinical data considered included age, sex, medication and symptom status, history of myocardial infarction, type of myocardial infarction and time from CABG. The exercise test responses considered were MET level, maximal heart rate, maximal systolic blood pressure, chest pain pattern and ST-segment response. During a 2-year follow-up after exercise testing, there were 15 deaths, 11 nonfatal myocardial infarctions, 6 repeat CABGs and 3 percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasties. Although MET level and maximal heart rate were significantly related to prognosis and no patient who exceeded 8 METs died, the predictive power of these exercise test responses was low and ST-segment depression was not predictive at all. The inability of the exercise electrocardiogram to predict cardiac events in patients after CABG requires the use of other methods of testing to identify those who need invasive studies and intervention.