Alexander Chiu1, Surbhi Modi, Emilia D Rivadeneira, Emilia H Koumans. 1. *Division of Global HIV & TB, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA; and†The CDC Experience Applied Epidemiology Fellowship, Scientific Education and Professional Development Program Office, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in HIV-infected infants significantly improves survival but is often delayed in resource-limited settings. Adding HIV testing of infants at birth to the current recommendation of testing at age 4-6 weeks may improve testing rates and decrease time to ART initiation. We modeled the benefit of adding HIV testing at birth to the current 6-week testing algorithm. METHODS: Microsoft Excel was used to create a decision-tree model of the care continuum for the estimated 1,400,000 HIV-infected women and their infants in sub-Saharan Africa in 2012. The model assumed average published rates for facility births (42.9%), prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission utilization (63%), mother-to-child-transmission rates based on prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission regimen (5%-40%), return of test results (41%), enrollment in HIV care (52%), and ART initiation (54%). We conducted sensitivity analyses to model the impact of key variables and applied the model to specific country examples. RESULTS: Adding HIV testing at birth would increase the number of infants on ART by 204% by age 18 months. The greatest increase is seen in early ART initiations (543% by age 3 months). The increase would lead to a corresponding increase in survival at 12 months of age, with 5108 fewer infant deaths (44,550, versus 49,658). CONCLUSION: Adding HIV testing at birth has the potential to improve the number and timing of ART initiation of HIV-infected infants, leading to a decrease in infant mortality. Using this model, countries should investigate a combination of HIV testing at birth and during the early infant period.
BACKGROUND: Early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in HIV-infectedinfants significantly improves survival but is often delayed in resource-limited settings. Adding HIV testing of infants at birth to the current recommendation of testing at age 4-6 weeks may improve testing rates and decrease time to ART initiation. We modeled the benefit of adding HIV testing at birth to the current 6-week testing algorithm. METHODS: Microsoft Excel was used to create a decision-tree model of the care continuum for the estimated 1,400,000 HIV-infectedwomen and their infants in sub-Saharan Africa in 2012. The model assumed average published rates for facility births (42.9%), prevention of mother-to-childHIV transmission utilization (63%), mother-to-child-transmission rates based on prevention of mother-to-childHIV transmission regimen (5%-40%), return of test results (41%), enrollment in HIV care (52%), and ART initiation (54%). We conducted sensitivity analyses to model the impact of key variables and applied the model to specific country examples. RESULTS: Adding HIV testing at birth would increase the number of infants on ART by 204% by age 18 months. The greatest increase is seen in early ART initiations (543% by age 3 months). The increase would lead to a corresponding increase in survival at 12 months of age, with 5108 fewer infant deaths (44,550, versus 49,658). CONCLUSION: Adding HIV testing at birth has the potential to improve the number and timing of ART initiation of HIV-infectedinfants, leading to a decrease in infant mortality. Using this model, countries should investigate a combination of HIV testing at birth and during the early infant period.
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