How China achieved its 11th Five-Year Plan emissions reduction target: A structural decomposition analysis of industrial SO2 and chemical oxygen demand.

To curb the increasing pollutant emissions that have accompanied rapid economic growth, China implemented a mandatory emissions control system since the 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period, and the emission reduction targets have been met and even exceeded. This article explores how China achieved its emissions reduction targets by systematically identifying the main emission reduction pathways, including both the environmental and economic factors, and evaluates the contribution of each factor using structure decomposition analysis. A study of the two key controlled pollutants, industrial sulfur dioxide (SO2) and chemical oxygen demand (COD), during the 11th FYP period showed that (i) changes in the end-of-pipe treatment and pollutant generation coefficient were the dominant contributors to emissions reduction. The power and metal smelting sectors played important roles in SO2 abatement, while the paper products and food products sectors were important in COD reduction; (ii) changes to the input coefficient increased overall emissions although there was a decrease in SO2 emissions in 2007-2010 mainly due to input structure improvements in the construction sector; (iii) the trade effect largely offset the domestic emission reduction effects, although the trade effect declined during the study period; (iv) domestic demand was the main factor increasing domestic emissions; domestic investment changes (especially in the construction sector) were the major contributor to increases in SO2 emissions, and final consumption changes (especially consumption in the food production sector) were the main contributor to the increase in COD emissions. The results yield important implications for China's pollution emissions control policies.