Liesl Zühlke1, Ganesan Karthikeyan1, Mark E Engel1, Sumathy Rangarajan1, Pam Mackie1, Blanche Cupido-Katya Mauff1, Shofiqul Islam1, Rezeen Daniels1, Veronica Francis1, Stephen Ogendo1, Bernard Gitura1, Charles Mondo1, Emmy Okello1, Peter Lwabi1, Mohammed M Al-Kebsi1, Christopher Hugo-Hamman1, Sahar S Sheta1, Abraham Haileamlak1, Wandimu Daniel1, Dejuma Yadeta Goshu1, Senbeta G Abdissa1, Araya G Desta1, Bekele A Shasho1, Dufera M Begna1, Ahmed ElSayed1, Ahmed S Ibrahim1, John Musuku1, Fidelia Bode-Thomas1, Christopher C Yilgwan1, Ganiyu A Amusa1, Olukemi Ige1, Basil Okeahialam1, Christopher Sutton1, Rajeev Misra1, Azza Abul Fadl1, Neil Kennedy1, Albertino Damasceno1, Mahmoud U Sani1, Okechukwu S Ogah1, Taiwo OlunugaHuda H M Elhassan1, Ana Olga Mocumbi1, Abiodun M Adeoye1, Phindile Mntla1, Dike Ojji1, Joseph Mucumbitsi1, Koon Teo1, Salim Yusuf1, Bongani M Mayosi2. 1. From Cardiac Clinic, Department of Medicine, Groote Schuur Hospital and University of Cape Town, South Africa (L.Z., M.E.E., B.C., R.D., V.F., B.M.M.); Division of Paediatric Cardiology, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital and University of Cape Town, South Africa (L.Z., C.H.-H.); Department of Cardiology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi (G.K.); Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton Health Sciences and McMaster University, Ontario, Canada (S.R., P.M., S.I., K.T., S.Y.); Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, South Africa (K.M.); Department of Surgery, School of Medicine, College of Health Sciences, University of Nairobi, Kenya (S.O.); Cardiology Unit, Department of Medicine, Kenyatta National Teaching and Referral Hospital, Nairobi, Kenya (B.G.); Cardiology Unit, Department of Medicine, Mulago Hospital, Kampala, Uganda (C.M.); Uganda Heart Institute, Kampala (E.O., P.L.); Faculty of Medicine & Surgery, University of Sana'a, Al-Thawrah Cardiac Center, Yemen (M.M.A.-K.); Paediatric Cardiology Service, Windhoek Central Hospital, Namibia (C.H.-H.); Department of Paediatrics, Division of Paediatric Cardiology, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University Children's Hospital, Egypt (S.S.S.); Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Jimma University Hospital, Ethiopia (A.H., W.D.); Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (D.Y.G., S.G.A., A.G.D., B.A.S., D.M.B.); Cardiothoracic Surgery Department, Al Shaab Teaching Hospital and Faculty of Medicine, Alzaiem Alazhari University, Khartoum, Sudan (A.E., A.S.I.); University Teaching Hospital, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, University of Zambia, Lusaka (J.M.); Departments of Paediatrics and Medicine, Jos University Teaching Hospital, Nigeria (F.B.-T., C.C.Y., G.A.A., O.I., B.O.); Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, University of Limpopo, Polokwane, South Africa (C.S.); Department of Internal Medicine, University of Limpopo, Polokwane, South Africa (R.M.); Faculty of Medicine, Benha University, Cairo, Egypt (A.A.F.); Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre (N.K.); Department of Medicine, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique (A.D.); Department of Medicine, Bayero University and Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, Nigeria (M.U.S.); Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria (O.S.O., A.M.A.); Nigeria Ministry of Health, Umuahia, Abia State (O.S.O.); Department of Medicine, Federal Medical Centre, Abeokuta, Nigeria (O.S.O., T.O.); Ahmed Gasim Teaching Hospital, Khartoum, Sudan (H.H.M.E.); Instituto Nacional de Saúde and Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique (A.O.M.); Department of Cardiology, Dr. George Mukhari Hospital and Sefako Makgatho Health Sciences University, Tshwane, South Africa (P.M.); Cardiology Unit, Department of Medicine, University of Abuja Teaching Hospital, Nigeria (D.O.); and Paediatric Cardiology Unit, Department of Paediatrics, King Faisal Hospital, Kigali, Rwanda (J.M.). 2. From Cardiac Clinic, Department of Medicine, Groote Schuur Hospital and University of Cape Town, South Africa (L.Z., M.E.E., B.C., R.D., V.F., B.M.M.); Division of Paediatric Cardiology, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital and University of Cape Town, South Africa (L.Z., C.H.-H.); Department of Cardiology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi (G.K.); Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton Health Sciences and McMaster University, Ontario, Canada (S.R., P.M., S.I., K.T., S.Y.); Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, South Africa (K.M.); Department of Surgery, School of Medicine, College of Health Sciences, University of Nairobi, Kenya (S.O.); Cardiology Unit, Department of Medicine, Kenyatta National Teaching and Referral Hospital, Nairobi, Kenya (B.G.); Cardiology Unit, Department of Medicine, Mulago Hospital, Kampala, Uganda (C.M.); Uganda Heart Institute, Kampala (E.O., P.L.); Faculty of Medicine & Surgery, University of Sana'a, Al-Thawrah Cardiac Center, Yemen (M.M.A.-K.); Paediatric Cardiology Service, Windhoek Central Hospital, Namibia (C.H.-H.); Department of Paediatrics, Division of Paediatric Cardiology, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University Children's Hospital, Egypt (S.S.S.); Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Jimma University Hospital, Ethiopia (A.H., W.D.); Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (D.Y.G., S.G.A., A.G.D., B.A.S., D.M.B.); Cardiothoracic Surgery Department, Al Shaab Teaching Hospital and Faculty of Medicine, Alzaiem Alazhari University, Khartoum, Sudan (A.E., A.S.I.); University Teaching Hospital, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, University of Zambia, Lusaka (J.M.); Departments of Paediatrics and Medicine, Jos University Teaching Hospital, Nigeria (F.B.-T., C.C.Y., G.A.A., O.I., B.O.); Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, University of Limpopo, Polokwane, South Africa (C.S.); Department of Internal Medicine, University of Limpopo, Polokwane, South Africa (R.M.); Faculty of Medicine, Benha University, Cairo, Egypt (A.A.F.); Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre (N.K.); Department of Medicine, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique (A.D.); Department of Medicine, Bayero University and Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, Nigeria (M.U.S.); Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria (O.S.O., A.M.A.); Nigeria Ministry of Health, Umuahia, Abia State (O.S.O.); Department of Medicine, Federal Medical Centre, Abeokuta, Nigeria (O.S.O., T.O.); Ahmed Gasim Teaching Hospital, Khartoum, Sudan (H.H.M.E.); Instituto Nacional de Saúde and Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique (A.O.M.); Department of Cardiology, Dr. George Mukhari Hospital and Sefako Makgatho Health Sciences University, Tshwane, South Africa (P.M.); Cardiology Unit, Department of Medicine, University of Abuja Teaching Hospital, Nigeria (D.O.); and Paediatric Cardiology Unit, Department of Paediatrics, King Faisal Hospital, Kigali, Rwanda (J.M.). bongani.mayosi@uct.ac.za.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: There are few contemporary data on the mortality and morbidity associated with rheumatic heart disease or information on their predictors. We report the 2-year follow-up of individuals with rheumatic heart disease from 14 low- and middle-income countries in Africa and Asia. METHODS: Between January 2010 and November 2012, we enrolled 3343 patients from 25 centers in 14 countries and followed them for 2 years to assess mortality, congestive heart failure, stroke or transient ischemic attack, recurrent acute rheumatic fever, and infective endocarditis. RESULTS: Vital status at 24 months was known for 2960 (88.5%) patients. Two-thirds were female. Although patients were young (median age, 28 years; interquartile range, 18-40), the 2-year case fatality rate was high (500 deaths, 16.9%). Mortality rate was 116.3/1000 patient-years in the first year and 65.4/1000 patient-years in the second year. Median age at death was 28.7 years. Independent predictors of death were severe valve disease (hazard ratio [HR], 2.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.80-3.11), congestive heart failure (HR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.70-2.72), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.32-2.10), atrial fibrillation (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.10-1.78), and older age (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.02 per year increase) at enrollment. Postprimary education (HR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.54-0.85) and female sex (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.52-0.80) were associated with lower risk of death. Two hundred and four (6.9%) patients had new congestive heart failure (incidence, 38.42/1000 patient-years), 46 (1.6%) had a stroke or transient ischemic attack (8.45/1000 patient-years), 19 (0.6%) had recurrent acute rheumatic fever (3.49/1000 patient-years), and 20 (0.7%) had infective endocarditis (3.65/1000 patient-years). Previous stroke and older age were independent predictors of stroke/transient ischemic attack or systemic embolism. Patients from low- and lower-middle-income countries had significantly higher age- and sex-adjusted mortality than patients from upper-middle-income countries. Valve surgery was significantly more common in upper-middle-income than in lower-middle- or low-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with clinical rheumatic heart disease have high mortality and morbidity despite being young; those from low- and lower-middle-income countries had a poorer prognosis associated with advanced disease and low education. Programs focused on early detection and the treatment of clinical rheumatic heart disease are required to improve outcomes.
BACKGROUND: There are few contemporary data on the mortality and morbidity associated with rheumatic heart disease or information on their predictors. We report the 2-year follow-up of individuals with rheumatic heart disease from 14 low- and middle-income countries in Africa and Asia. METHODS: Between January 2010 and November 2012, we enrolled 3343 patients from 25 centers in 14 countries and followed them for 2 years to assess mortality, congestive heart failure, stroke or transient ischemic attack, recurrent acute rheumatic fever, and infective endocarditis. RESULTS: Vital status at 24 months was known for 2960 (88.5%) patients. Two-thirds were female. Although patients were young (median age, 28 years; interquartile range, 18-40), the 2-year case fatality rate was high (500 deaths, 16.9%). Mortality rate was 116.3/1000 patient-years in the first year and 65.4/1000 patient-years in the second year. Median age at death was 28.7 years. Independent predictors of death were severe valve disease (hazard ratio [HR], 2.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.80-3.11), congestive heart failure (HR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.70-2.72), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.32-2.10), atrial fibrillation (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.10-1.78), and older age (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.02 per year increase) at enrollment. Postprimary education (HR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.54-0.85) and female sex (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.52-0.80) were associated with lower risk of death. Two hundred and four (6.9%) patients had new congestive heart failure (incidence, 38.42/1000 patient-years), 46 (1.6%) had a stroke or transient ischemic attack (8.45/1000 patient-years), 19 (0.6%) had recurrent acute rheumatic fever (3.49/1000 patient-years), and 20 (0.7%) had infective endocarditis (3.65/1000 patient-years). Previous stroke and older age were independent predictors of stroke/transient ischemic attack or systemic embolism. Patients from low- and lower-middle-income countries had significantly higher age- and sex-adjusted mortality than patients from upper-middle-income countries. Valve surgery was significantly more common in upper-middle-income than in lower-middle- or low-income countries. CONCLUSIONS:Patients with clinical rheumatic heart disease have high mortality and morbidity despite being young; those from low- and lower-middle-income countries had a poorer prognosis associated with advanced disease and low education. Programs focused on early detection and the treatment of clinical rheumatic heart disease are required to improve outcomes.
Authors: Chris T Longenecker; Stephen R Morris; Twalib O Aliku; Andrea Beaton; Marco A Costa; Moses R Kamya; Cissy Kityo; Peter Lwabi; Grace Mirembe; Dorah Nampijja; Joselyn Rwebembera; Craig Sable; Robert A Salata; Amy Scheel; Daniel I Simon; Isaac Ssinabulya; Emmy Okello Journal: Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes Date: 2017-11