Increased risk of graft failure and mortality in Dutch recipients receiving an expanded criteria donor kidney transplant.

Survival of expanded criteria donor (ECD) kidneys and their recipients has not been thoroughly evaluated in Europe. Therefore, we compared the outcome of ECD and non-ECD kidney transplantations in a Dutch cohort, stratifying by age and diabetes. In all first Dutch kidney transplants in recipients ≥18 years between 1995 and 2005, both relative risks (hazard ratios, HR) and adjusted absolute risk differences (RD) for ECD kidney transplantation were analysed. In 3062 transplantations [recipient age 49.0 (12.8) years; 20% ECD], ECD kidney transplantation was associated with graft failure including death [HR 1.62 (1.44-1.82)]. The adjusted HR was lower in recipients ≥60 years of age [1.32 (1.07-1.63)] than in recipients 40-59 years [1.71 (1.44-2.02) P = 0.12 for comparison with ≥60 years] and recipients 18-39 years [1.92 (1.42-2.62) P = 0.03 for comparison with ≥60 years]. RDs showed a similar pattern. In diabetics, the risks for graft failure and death were higher than in the nondiabetics. ECD kidney grafts have a poorer prognosis than non-ECD grafts, especially in younger recipients (<60 years), and diabetic recipients. Further studies and ethical discussions should reveal whether ECD kidneys should preferentially be allocated to specific subgroups, such as elderly and nondiabetic individuals.