Marcelo Katz1, Hayden B Bosworth2, Renato D Lopes3, Matthew E Dupre4, Fernando Morita5, Carolina Pereira5, Fabio G M Franco5, Rogerio R Prado5, Antonio E Pesaro5, Mauricio Wajngarten5. 1. Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil. Electronic address: mkatz@einstein.br. 2. Department of Medicine, Division of General Internal Medicine, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA. 3. Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA. 4. Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA and Department of Community and Family Medicine, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA. 5. Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The effect of socioeconomic stressors on the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is currently open to debate. Using time-series analysis, our study aimed to evaluate the relationship between unemployment rate and hospital admission for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke in Brazil over a recent 11-year span. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data on monthly hospital admissions for AMI and stroke from March 2002 to December 2013 were extracted from the Brazilian Public Health System Database. The monthly unemployment rate was obtained from the Brazilian Institute for Applied Economic Research, during the same period. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to test the association of temporal series. Statistical significance was set at p<0.05. From March 2002 to December 2013, 778,263 admissions for AMI and 1,581,675 for stroke were recorded. During this time period, the unemployment rate decreased from 12.9% in 2002 to 4.3% in 2013, while admissions due to AMI and stroke increased. However, the adjusted ARIMA model showed a positive association between the unemployment rate and admissions for AMI but not for stroke (estimate coefficient=2.81±0.93; p=0.003 and estimate coefficient=2.40±4.34; p=0.58, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: From 2002 to 2013, hospital admissions for AMI and stroke increased, whereas the unemployment rate decreased. However, the adjusted ARIMA model showed a positive association between unemployment rate and admissions due to AMI but not for stroke. Further studies are warranted to validate our findings and to better explore the mechanisms by which socioeconomic stressors, such as unemployment, might impact on the incidence of CVD.
BACKGROUND: The effect of socioeconomic stressors on the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is currently open to debate. Using time-series analysis, our study aimed to evaluate the relationship between unemployment rate and hospital admission for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke in Brazil over a recent 11-year span. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data on monthly hospital admissions for AMI and stroke from March 2002 to December 2013 were extracted from the Brazilian Public Health System Database. The monthly unemployment rate was obtained from the Brazilian Institute for Applied Economic Research, during the same period. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to test the association of temporal series. Statistical significance was set at p<0.05. From March 2002 to December 2013, 778,263 admissions for AMI and 1,581,675 for stroke were recorded. During this time period, the unemployment rate decreased from 12.9% in 2002 to 4.3% in 2013, while admissions due to AMI and stroke increased. However, the adjusted ARIMA model showed a positive association between the unemployment rate and admissions for AMI but not for stroke (estimate coefficient=2.81±0.93; p=0.003 and estimate coefficient=2.40±4.34; p=0.58, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: From 2002 to 2013, hospital admissions for AMI and stroke increased, whereas the unemployment rate decreased. However, the adjusted ARIMA model showed a positive association between unemployment rate and admissions due to AMI but not for stroke. Further studies are warranted to validate our findings and to better explore the mechanisms by which socioeconomic stressors, such as unemployment, might impact on the incidence of CVD.
Authors: Gláucia Maria Moraes de Oliveira; Luisa Campos Caldeira Brant; Carisi Anne Polanczyk; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Andreia Biolo; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Maria de Fatima Marinho de Souza; Andrea Rocha De Lorenzo; Antonio Aurélio de Paiva Fagundes Júnior; Beatriz D Schaan; Fábio Morato de Castilho; Fernando Henpin Yue Cesena; Gabriel Porto Soares; Gesner Francisco Xavier Junior; Jose Augusto Soares Barreto Filho; Luiz Guilherme Passaglia; Marcelo Martins Pinto Filho; M Julia Machline-Carrion; Marcio Sommer Bittencourt; Octavio M Pontes Neto; Paolo Blanco Villela; Renato Azeredo Teixeira; Roney Orismar Sampaio; Thomaz A Gaziano; Pablo Perel; Gregory A Roth; Antonio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro Journal: Arq Bras Cardiol Date: 2022-01 Impact factor: 2.000
Authors: Gláucia Maria Moraes de Oliveira; Luisa Campos Caldeira Brant; Carisi Anne Polanczyk; Andreia Biolo; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Maria de Fatima Marinho de Souza; Gabriel Porto Soares; Gesner Francisco Xavier Junior; M Julia Machline-Carrion; Marcio Sommer Bittencourt; Octavio M Pontes Neto; Odilson Marcos Silvestre; Renato Azeredo Teixeira; Roney Orismar Sampaio; Thomaz A Gaziano; Gregory A Roth; Antonio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro Journal: Arq Bras Cardiol Date: 2020-09 Impact factor: 2.667