Literature DB >> 27600193

A New Prognosis Score to Predict Mortality After Acute Pneumonia in Very Elderly Patients.

Alain Putot1, Jennifer Tetu2, Sophie Perrin1, Henri Bailly1, Lionel Piroth3, Jean-François Besancenot4, Bernard Bonnotte5, Pascal Chavanet3, Pierre-Emmanuel Charles6, Hélène Sordet-Guépet1, Patrick Manckoundia7.   

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: Acute pneumonia (AP) induces an excess of mortality among the elderly. We evaluated the value of a new predictive biomarker index compared to usual prognosis scores for predicting in-hospital and 1-year mortalities in elderly inpatients with AP.
DESIGN: Retrospective study in 6 clinical departments of a university hospital.
SETTING: Burgundy university hospital (France). PARTICIPANTS: All patients aged 75 and over with AP and hospitalized between January 1 and June 30, 2013, in the departments of medicine (5) and intensive care (1) of our university hospital. MEASUREMENTS: A new index, which we named UBMo, was created by multiplying the uremia (U in the formula) by the N-terminal-pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) plasmatic rate (B), divided by the monocyte count (Mo).
RESULTS: Among the 217 patients included, there were 138 community-acquired pneumonia, 56 nursing home-acquired pneumonia, and 23 hospital-acquired pneumonia. In-hospital and 1-year mortality rates were respectively 19.8% and 43.8%. In multivariate analysis, Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), unlike CURB-65 (confusion, urea >7 mmol/L, respiratory rate ≥30 breaths/min, blood pressure <90 mmHg systolic or ≤60 mmHg diastolic, age ≥65) score, was associated with in-hospital and 1-year mortalities. UBMo index performed better than PSI and CURB-65 scores in predicting both in-hospital and 1-year mortalities. For in-hospital mortality, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.89 (95% CI = 0.84-0.94), 0.72 (95% CI = 0.65-0.80), and 0.63 (95% CI = 0.54-0.72), respectively, for the 3 scores. For 1-year mortality, the AUCs were 0.93 (95% CI = 0.89-0.98), 0.66 (95% CI = 0.59-0.74), and 0.58 (95% CI = 0.50-0.66), respectively, for the 3 scores. The cut point for the UBMo index of 20,000 × 10-9 ng·mmol/L had a sensitivity of 93.1% and 80.9% and a specificity of 76.3% and 95.8%, respectively, for in-hospital and 1-year mortalities.
CONCLUSION: If confirmed by prospective studies, the UBMo index appears very efficient in identifying patients at high risk of in-hospital and 1-year mortalities after an AP. Copyright Â
© 2016 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Entities:  

Keywords:  Elderly; mortality; pneumonia; prognosis; score

Mesh:

Substances:

Year:  2016        PMID: 27600193     DOI: 10.1016/j.jamda.2016.07.018

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  J Am Med Dir Assoc        ISSN: 1525-8610            Impact factor:   4.669


  5 in total

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Journal:  PLoS One       Date:  2018-02-14       Impact factor: 3.240

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4.  Role of Clinical Characteristics and Biomarkers at Admission to Predict One-Year Mortality in Elderly Patients with Pneumonia.

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Journal:  J Clin Med       Date:  2021-12-25       Impact factor: 4.241

5.  Development and validation of a new scoring system for prognostic prediction of community-acquired pneumonia in older adults.

Authors:  Masahiro Shirata; Isao Ito; Tadashi Ishida; Hiromasa Tachibana; Naoya Tanabe; Satoshi Konishi; Issei Oi; Nobuyoshi Hamao; Kensuke Nishioka; Hisako Matsumoto; Yoshiro Yasutomo; Seizo Kadowaki; Hisashi Ohnishi; Hiromi Tomioka; Takashi Nishimura; Yoshinori Hasegawa; Atsushi Nakagawa; Toyohiro Hirai
Journal:  Sci Rep       Date:  2021-12-13       Impact factor: 4.379

  5 in total

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