Predicting Frequent Emergency Department Use by Pediatric Medicaid Patients.

The objective of this study was to determine the patient characteristics and health care utilization patterns that predict frequent emergency department (ED) use (≥4 visits per year) over time to assist health care organizations in targeting patients for care management. This was a retrospective, population-based study of 13,265 Medicaid children aged 0-20 years who were attributed to a single pediatric accountable care organization for at least 2 consecutive years between June 2012 and May 2015. Year-to-year persistence as a frequent ED user was 36.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 33.4 to 38.4), which does not support the notion that once a frequent user, always a frequent user. Hence, interventions to reduce frequent ED use may appear to be effective when ED use would have regressed toward the mean without any intervention. At an individual patient level, predictability of frequent ED use was 0.437 (95% CI: 0.358 to 0.485) across frequent ED users of all ages compared with 0.723 (95% CI: 0.435 to 0.824) for those aged <1 year. Accordingly, this latter group may be a better target for interventions than frequent ED users generally.