Ross Boyce1, Raquel Reyes2, Michael Matte3, Moses Ntaro3, Edgar Mulogo3, Joshua P Metlay4, Lawrence Band5, Mark J Siedner6. 1. Division of Infectious Diseases. 2. Division of General Medicine and Clinical Epidemiology, University of North Carolina School of Medicine. 3. Department of Community Health, Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Uganda. 4. Division of General Internal Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital. 5. Department of Geography, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. 6. Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: There are several mechanisms by which global climate change may impact malaria transmission. We sought to assess how the increased frequency of extreme precipitation events associated with global climate change will influence malaria transmission in highland areas of East Africa. METHODS: We used a differences-in-differences, quasi-experimental design to examine spatial variability in the incidence rate of laboratory-confirmed malaria cases and malaria-related hospitalizations between villages (1) at high versus low elevations, (2) with versus without rivers, and (3) upstream versus downstream before and after severe flooding that occurred in Kasese District, Western Region, Uganda, in May 2013. RESULTS: During the study period, 7596 diagnostic tests were performed, and 1285 patients were admitted with a diagnosis of malaria. We observed that extreme flooding resulted in an increase of approximately 30% in the risk of an individual having a positive result of a malaria diagnostic test in the postflood period in villages bordering a flood-affected river, compared with villages farther from a river, with a larger relative impact on upstream versus downstream villages (adjusted rate ratio, 1.91 vs 1.33). CONCLUSIONS: Extreme precipitation such as the flooding described here may pose significant challenges to malaria control programs and will demand timely responses to mitigate deleterious impacts on human health.
BACKGROUND: There are several mechanisms by which global climate change may impact malaria transmission. We sought to assess how the increased frequency of extreme precipitation events associated with global climate change will influence malaria transmission in highland areas of East Africa. METHODS: We used a differences-in-differences, quasi-experimental design to examine spatial variability in the incidence rate of laboratory-confirmed malaria cases and malaria-related hospitalizations between villages (1) at high versus low elevations, (2) with versus without rivers, and (3) upstream versus downstream before and after severe flooding that occurred in Kasese District, Western Region, Uganda, in May 2013. RESULTS: During the study period, 7596 diagnostic tests were performed, and 1285 patients were admitted with a diagnosis of malaria. We observed that extreme flooding resulted in an increase of approximately 30% in the risk of an individual having a positive result of a malaria diagnostic test in the postflood period in villages bordering a flood-affected river, compared with villages farther from a river, with a larger relative impact on upstream versus downstream villages (adjusted rate ratio, 1.91 vs 1.33). CONCLUSIONS: Extreme precipitation such as the flooding described here may pose significant challenges to malaria control programs and will demand timely responses to mitigate deleterious impacts on human health.
Authors: Noboru Minakawa; Stephen Munga; Francis Atieli; Emmanuel Mushinzimana; Guofa Zhou; Andrew K Githeko; Guiyun Yan Journal: Am J Trop Med Hyg Date: 2005-07 Impact factor: 2.345
Authors: Peter W Gething; David L Smith; Anand P Patil; Andrew J Tatem; Robert W Snow; Simon I Hay Journal: Nature Date: 2010-05-20 Impact factor: 49.962
Authors: Ross Boyce; Raquel Reyes; Moses Ntaro; Edgar Mulogo; Michael Matte; Yap Boum; Mark J Siedner Journal: J Glob Health Date: 2015-12 Impact factor: 4.413
Authors: Moses Murungi; Travis Fulton; Raquel Reyes; Michael Matte; Moses Ntaro; Edgar Mulogo; Dan Nyehangane; Jonathan J Juliano; Mark J Siedner; Yap Boum; Ross M Boyce Journal: J Clin Microbiol Date: 2017-03-08 Impact factor: 5.948
Authors: Joanna A Ruszkiewicz; Alexey A Tinkov; Anatoly V Skalny; Vasileios Siokas; Efthimios Dardiotis; Aristidis Tsatsakis; Aaron B Bowman; João B T da Rocha; Michael Aschner Journal: Environ Res Date: 2019-08-08 Impact factor: 6.498
Authors: Ross M Boyce; Brandon D Hollingsworth; Emma Baguma; Erin Xu; Varun Goel; Amanda Brown-Marusiak; Rabbison Muhindo; Raquel Reyes; Moses Ntaro; Mark J Siedner; Sarah G Staedke; Jonathan J Juliano; Edgar M Mulogo Journal: Clin Infect Dis Date: 2022-07-06 Impact factor: 20.999
Authors: Emily W Harville; Leslie Beitsch; Christopher K Uejio; Samendra Sherchan; Maureen Y Lichtveld Journal: Int J Disaster Risk Reduct Date: 2021-06-24 Impact factor: 4.842