What drives public health care expenditure growth? Evidence from Swiss cantons, 1970-2012.

A better understanding of the determinants of public health care expenditures is key to designing effective health policies. We integrate demand and supply-side determinants and factors from political economy into an empirical analysis of the highly decentralized Swiss health care system and control for major health care finance reforms. We compile a novel data set of the cantonal health care expenditure in Switzerland, which currently amounts to about one fifth of total health care expenditure. We analyze the period 1970-2012 and use dynamic panel estimation methods. We find that per capita income, the unemployment rate and the share of foreigners are positively related to public health care expenditure growth. With regard to political economy aspects, public health care expenditures increase with the share of women elected to parliament. However, institutional restrictions for politicians, such as fiscal rules, do not appear to limit public health care expenditure growth.