Differential influences of local subpopulations on regional diversity and differentiation for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus).

The distribution of spatial genetic variation across a region can shape evolutionary dynamics and impact population persistence. Local population dynamics and among-population dispersal rates are strong drivers of this spatial genetic variation, yet for many species we lack a clear understanding of how these population processes interact in space to shape within-species genetic variation. Here, we used extensive genetic and demographic data from 10 subpopulations of greater sage-grouse to parameterize a simulated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) model and (i) test for regional differences in population density and dispersal rates for greater sage-grouse subpopulations in Wyoming, and (ii) quantify how these differences impact subpopulation regional influence on genetic variation. We found a close match between observed and simulated data under our parameterized model and strong variation in density and dispersal rates across Wyoming. Sensitivity analyses suggested that changes in dispersal (via landscape resistance) had a greater influence on regional differentiation, whereas changes in density had a greater influence on mean diversity across all subpopulations. Local subpopulations, however, varied in their regional influence on genetic variation. Decreases in the size and dispersal rates of central populations with low overall and net immigration (i.e. population sources) had the greatest negative impact on genetic variation. Overall, our results provide insight into the interactions among demography, dispersal and genetic variation and highlight the potential of ABC to disentangle the complexity of regional population dynamics and project the genetic impact of changing conditions.