Nutrient reduction magnifies the impact of extreme weather on cyanobacterial bloom formation in large shallow Lake Taihu (China).

Cyanobacterial bloom formation is dependent on nutrient levels and meteorological conditions. In this study, we elucidated the effects of extreme weather events (EWEs, heavy rainfall and strong winds) on the cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Taihu in recent years based on an analysis of the meteorological, nutrient, and bloom area data from 2007 to 2015. The levels of total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) decreased by 42.5% and 31.2%, respectively, in the water of Lake Taihu over the past nine years. However, the frequency and intensity of cyanobacterial blooms did not significantly decrease. A total of 50.5% of the extended blooms (>300 km(2)) were associated with EWEs from 2007 to 2015, 36.2% of which were due to heavy rainfall and 38.3% of which were due to strong winds (25.5% were due to both). Interestingly, the frequency of the EWE-induced extended blooms significantly increased after 2012. Principal component analysis (PCA) showed that this frequency correlated positively with EWE-induced nutrient increases in the water, indicating that the complement from nutrient increases induced by EWE allow cyanobacterial cells to reach high biomass under relatively low nutrient condition. Our results suggest that EWEs play a more important role in extended bloom formation after the nutrient levels in shallow lakes are reduced.