Paul L Hess1, Daniel M Wojdyla2, Sana M Al-Khatib3, Yuliya Lokhnygina4, Lars Wallentin5, Paul W Armstrong6, Matthew T Roe3, E Magnus Ohman3, Robert A Harrington7, John H Alexander3, Harvey D White8, Frans Van de Werf9, Jonathan P Piccini3, Claes Held5, Philip E Aylward10, David J Moliterno11, Kenneth W Mahaffey7, Pierluigi Tricoci3. 1. Veterans Affairs Eastern Colorado and Health Care System, Denver2Department of Medicine, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora. 2. Duke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, North Carolina. 3. Department of Medicine, Duke University School of Medicine, Duke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, North Carolina. 4. Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina. 5. Department of Medical Sciences, Cardiology, Uppsala Clinical Research Center, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden. 6. Division of Cardiology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada. 7. Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California. 8. Green Lane Cardiovascular Service, Auckland City Hospital, Auckland, New Zealand. 9. Department of Cardiology, University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium. 10. South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, Flinders University and Medical Centre, Adelaide, Australia. 11. Gill Heart Institute and Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Kentucky, Lexington.
Abstract
IMPORTANCE: In the current therapeutic era, the risk for sudden cardiac death (SCD) after non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE ACS) has not been characterized completely. OBJECTIVE: To determine the cumulative incidence of SCD during long-term follow-up after NSTE ACS, to develop a risk model and risk score for SCD after NSTE ACS, and to assess the association between recurrent events after the initial ACS presentation and the risk for SCD. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This pooled cohort analysis merged individual data from 48 286 participants in 4 trials: the Apixaban for Prevention of Acute Ischemic Events 2 (APPRAISE-2), Study of Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes (PLATO), Thrombin Receptor Antagonist for Clinical Event Reduction in Acute Coronary Syndrome (TRACER), and Targeted Platelet Inhibition to Clarify the Optimal Strategy to Medically Manage Acute Coronary Syndromes (TRILOGY ACS) trials. The cumulative incidence of SCD and cardiovascular death was examined according to time after NSTE ACS. Using competing risk and Cox proportional hazards models, clinical factors at baseline and after the index event that were associated with SCD after NSTE ACS were identified. Baseline factors were used to develop a risk model. Data were analyzed from January 2, 2014, to December 11, 2015. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Sudden cardiac death. RESULTS: Of the initial 48 286 patients, 37 555 patients were enrolled after NSTE ACS (67.4% men; 32.6% women; median [interquartile range] age, 65 [57-72] years). Among these, 2109 deaths occurred after a median follow-up of 12.1 months. Of 1640 cardiovascular deaths, 513 (31.3%) were SCD. At 6, 18, and 30 months, the cumulative incidence estimates of SCD were 0.79%, 1.65%, and 2.37%, respectively. Reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, older age, diabetes mellitus, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, higher heart rate, prior myocardial infarction, peripheral artery disease, Asian race, male sex, and high Killip class were significantly associated with SCD. A model developed to calculate the risk for SCD in trials with systematic collection of left ventricular ejection fraction had a C index of 0.77. An integer-based score was developed from this model and yielded a calculated SCD probability ranging from 0.1% to 56.7% (C statistic, 0.75). In a multivariable model that included time-dependent clinical events occurring after the index hospitalization for ACS, SCD was associated with recurrent myocardial infarction (hazard ratio [HR], 2.95; 95% CI, 2.29-3.80; P < .001) and any hospitalization (HR, 2.45; 95% CI, 1.98-3.03; P < .001), whereas coronary revascularization had a negative relationship with SCD (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.58-0.98; P = .03). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In the current therapeutic era, SCD accounts for about one-third of cardiovascular deaths after NSTE ACS. Risk stratification can be performed with good accuracy using commonly collected clinical variables. Clinical events occurring after the index hospitalization are underappreciated but important risk factors.
IMPORTANCE: In the current therapeutic era, the risk for sudden cardiac death (SCD) after non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE ACS) has not been characterized completely. OBJECTIVE: To determine the cumulative incidence of SCD during long-term follow-up after NSTE ACS, to develop a risk model and risk score for SCD after NSTE ACS, and to assess the association between recurrent events after the initial ACS presentation and the risk for SCD. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This pooled cohort analysis merged individual data from 48 286 participants in 4 trials: the Apixaban for Prevention of Acute Ischemic Events 2 (APPRAISE-2), Study of Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes (PLATO), Thrombin Receptor Antagonist for Clinical Event Reduction in Acute Coronary Syndrome (TRACER), and Targeted Platelet Inhibition to Clarify the Optimal Strategy to Medically Manage Acute Coronary Syndromes (TRILOGY ACS) trials. The cumulative incidence of SCD and cardiovascular death was examined according to time after NSTE ACS. Using competing risk and Cox proportional hazards models, clinical factors at baseline and after the index event that were associated with SCD after NSTE ACS were identified. Baseline factors were used to develop a risk model. Data were analyzed from January 2, 2014, to December 11, 2015. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Sudden cardiac death. RESULTS: Of the initial 48 286 patients, 37 555 patients were enrolled after NSTE ACS (67.4% men; 32.6% women; median [interquartile range] age, 65 [57-72] years). Among these, 2109 deaths occurred after a median follow-up of 12.1 months. Of 1640 cardiovascular deaths, 513 (31.3%) were SCD. At 6, 18, and 30 months, the cumulative incidence estimates of SCD were 0.79%, 1.65%, and 2.37%, respectively. Reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, older age, diabetes mellitus, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, higher heart rate, prior myocardial infarction, peripheral artery disease, Asian race, male sex, and high Killip class were significantly associated with SCD. A model developed to calculate the risk for SCD in trials with systematic collection of left ventricular ejection fraction had a C index of 0.77. An integer-based score was developed from this model and yielded a calculated SCD probability ranging from 0.1% to 56.7% (C statistic, 0.75). In a multivariable model that included time-dependent clinical events occurring after the index hospitalization for ACS, SCD was associated with recurrent myocardial infarction (hazard ratio [HR], 2.95; 95% CI, 2.29-3.80; P < .001) and any hospitalization (HR, 2.45; 95% CI, 1.98-3.03; P < .001), whereas coronary revascularization had a negative relationship with SCD (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.58-0.98; P = .03). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In the current therapeutic era, SCD accounts for about one-third of cardiovascular deaths after NSTE ACS. Risk stratification can be performed with good accuracy using commonly collected clinical variables. Clinical events occurring after the index hospitalization are underappreciated but important risk factors.
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