The role of climatic and anthropogenic stresses on long-term runoff reduction from the Loess Plateau, China.

Human intervention has strongly altered patterns of river runoff. Yet, few studies have addressed the complexity and nonlinearity of the anthropogenic stresses on runoff or their interaction with climate. We study the Loess Plateau in China, whose river runoff contributes 65% of the discharge to the middle reach of the Yellow River; this landscape has been shaped by human activity and is intensively managed. Our purpose is to characterize the interactive roles of climate and human activities in defining river runoff from the Loess Plateau. Applying a transient analysis to discover the time-varying runoff trend and impact factors, we found that the average runoff in the Loess Plateau decreased continuously during the period 1961-2009 (average rate of -0.9mmyear(-1), P<0.001). This long-term decrease in runoff mainly occurred in three stages, with transitions in 1970, 1981 and 1996. Reduced precipitation was the main reason for the decrease in runoff over the entire study period. However, human intervention played a dominant role in creating the transition points. Water yield (i.e., the ratio of runoff to precipitation) decreased following each anthropogenic transition, causing a 56% reduction in available freshwater resources during the period 1961-2009. These findings highlight the need for studies that address the dynamic and nonlinear processes controlling the availability of freshwater resources in the light of anthropogenic influences applied under a changing climate. Such studies are essential if we are to meet the human water demand in the Loess Plateau region.