Marcus Andreas Ohlsson1, Linn Maria Kennedy2, Mark H Ebell3, Tord Juhlin4, Olle Melander5. 1. Department of Internal Medicine, Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden. Electronic address: Marcus.ohlsson@med.lu.se. 2. Department of Internal Medicine, Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden. 3. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, USA. 4. Department of Cardiology, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden. 5. Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: There is a great need for a simple and clinically useful instrument to help physicians estimate the probability of survival to discharge with a good neurological outcome (cerebral performance category, CPC=1) in cases of in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA). Our aim was to validate the "Good Outcome Following Attempted Resuscitation" (GO-FAR) score in a different country with different demographics than previously investigated. METHODS: A retrospective observational study including all cases of IHCA who were part of a cardiac arrest registry at Skåne University Hospital in Sweden 2007-2010. RESULTS: Two-hundred-eighty-seven patients suffered IHCA during the period. A majority were male and mean age was 70years. Overall survival to discharge independent of neurological function was 20.2%; 78% of the survivors had CPC=1 and survival to discharge with CPC=1 was 15.7%. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for the GO-FAR score was 0.85 (CI=0.78-0.91, p<0.001), consistent with very good discrimination. Patients in the group with low or very low probability of survival had a likelihood of 2.8% (95% CI 0.0-6.7), whereas the groups with average and above average probabilities had likelihoods of 8.2% (3.7-13) and 46% (34-58), respectively, for good neurological outcome. This compares with likelihoods of 1.6%, 9.2% and 27.8% in the original study. CONCLUSION: The GO-FAR score accurately predicted the probability of survival to discharge with CPC=1, even when applied to a different population in another country.
BACKGROUND: There is a great need for a simple and clinically useful instrument to help physicians estimate the probability of survival to discharge with a good neurological outcome (cerebral performance category, CPC=1) in cases of in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA). Our aim was to validate the "Good Outcome Following Attempted Resuscitation" (GO-FAR) score in a different country with different demographics than previously investigated. METHODS: A retrospective observational study including all cases of IHCA who were part of a cardiac arrest registry at Skåne University Hospital in Sweden 2007-2010. RESULTS: Two-hundred-eighty-seven patients suffered IHCA during the period. A majority were male and mean age was 70years. Overall survival to discharge independent of neurological function was 20.2%; 78% of the survivors had CPC=1 and survival to discharge with CPC=1 was 15.7%. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for the GO-FAR score was 0.85 (CI=0.78-0.91, p<0.001), consistent with very good discrimination. Patients in the group with low or very low probability of survival had a likelihood of 2.8% (95% CI 0.0-6.7), whereas the groups with average and above average probabilities had likelihoods of 8.2% (3.7-13) and 46% (34-58), respectively, for good neurological outcome. This compares with likelihoods of 1.6%, 9.2% and 27.8% in the original study. CONCLUSION: The GO-FAR score accurately predicted the probability of survival to discharge with CPC=1, even when applied to a different population in another country.
Authors: Richard T Carrick; Jinny G Park; Hannah L McGinnes; Christine Lundquist; Kristen D Brown; W Adam Janes; Benjamin S Wessler; David M Kent Journal: J Am Heart Assoc Date: 2020-08-13 Impact factor: 5.501