Wetland loss due to land use change in the Lower Paraná River Delta, Argentina.

Wetland loss is a global concern because wetlands are highly diverse ecosystems that provide important goods and services, thus threatening both biodiversity and human well-being. The Paraná River Delta is one of the largest and most important wetland ecosystems of South America, undergoing expanding cattle and forestry activities with widespread water control practices. To understand the patterns and drivers of land cover change in the Lower Paraná River Delta, we quantified land cover changes and modeled associated factors. We developed land cover maps using Landsat images from 1999 and 2013 and identified main land cover changes. We quantified the influence of different socioeconomic (distance to roads, population centers and human activity centers), land management (area within polders, cattle density and years since last fire), biophysical variables (landscape unit, elevation, soil productivity, distance to rivers) and variables related to extreme system dynamics (flooding and fires) on freshwater marsh conversion with Boosted Regression Trees. We found that one third of the freshwater marshes of the Lower Delta (163,000ha) were replaced by pastures (70%) and forestry (18%) in only 14years. Ranching practices (represented by cattle density, area within polders and distance to roads) were the most important factors responsible for freshwater marsh conversion to pasture. These rapid and widespread losses of freshwater marshes have potentially large negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services. A strategy for sustainable wetland management will benefit from careful analysis of dominant land uses and related management practices, to develop an urgently needed land use policy for the Lower Delta.