Simon Chapman1, Philip Alpers1, Michael Jones2. 1. School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia. 2. Department of Psychology, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia.
Abstract
IMPORTANCE: Rapid-fire weapons are often used by perpetrators in mass shooting incidents. In 1996 Australia introduced major gun law reforms that included a ban on semiautomatic rifles and pump-action shotguns and rifles and also initiated a program for buyback of firearms. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether enactment of the 1996 gun laws and buyback program were followed by changes in the incidence of mass firearm homicides and total firearm deaths. DESIGN: Observational study using Australian government statistics on deaths caused by firearms (1979-2013) and news reports of mass shootings in Australia (1979-May 2016). Changes in intentional firearm death rates were analyzed with negative binomial regression, and data on firearm-related mass killings were compared. EXPOSURES: Implementation of major national gun law reforms. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Changes in mass fatal shooting incidents (defined as ≥5 victims, not including the perpetrator) and in trends of rates of total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and suicides, and total homicides and suicides per 100,000 population. RESULTS: From 1979-1996 (before gun law reforms), 13 fatal mass shootings occurred in Australia, whereas from 1997 through May 2016 (after gun law reforms), no fatal mass shootings occurred. There was also significant change in the preexisting downward trends for rates of total firearm deaths prior to vs after gun law reform. From 1979-1996, the mean rate of total firearm deaths was 3.6 (95% CI, 3.3-3.9) per 100,000 population (average decline of 3% per year; annual trend, 0.970; 95% CI, 0.963-0.976), whereas from 1997-2013 (after gun law reforms), the mean rate of total firearm deaths was 1.2 (95% CI, 1.0-1.4) per 100,000 population (average decline of 4.9% per year; annual trend, 0.951; 95% CI, 0.940-0.962), with a ratio of trends in annual death rates of 0.981 (95% CI, 0.968-0.993). There was a statistically significant acceleration in the preexisting downward trend for firearm suicide (ratio of trends, 0.981; 95% CI, 0.970-0.993), but this was not statistically significant for firearm homicide (ratio of trends, 0.975; 95% CI, 0.949-1.001). From 1979-1996, the mean annual rate of total nonfirearm suicide and homicide deaths was 10.6 (95% CI, 10.0-11.2) per 100,000 population (average increase of 2.1% per year; annual trend, 1.021; 95% CI, 1.016-1.026), whereas from 1997-2013, the mean annual rate was 11.8 (95% CI, 11.3-12.3) per 100,000 (average decline of 1.4% per year; annual trend, 0.986; 95% CI, 0.980-0.993), with a ratio of trends of 0.966 (95% CI, 0.958-0.973). There was no evidence of substitution of other lethal methods for suicides or homicides. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Following enactment of gun law reforms in Australia in 1996, there were no mass firearm killings through May 2016. There was a more rapid decline in firearm deaths between 1997 and 2013 compared with before 1997 but also a decline in total nonfirearm suicide and homicide deaths of a greater magnitude. Because of this, it is not possible to determine whether the change in firearm deaths can be attributed to the gun law reforms.
IMPORTANCE: Rapid-fire weapons are often used by perpetrators in mass shooting incidents. In 1996 Australia introduced major gun law reforms that included a ban on semiautomatic rifles and pump-action shotguns and rifles and also initiated a program for buyback of firearms. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether enactment of the 1996 gun laws and buyback program were followed by changes in the incidence of mass firearm homicides and total firearm deaths. DESIGN: Observational study using Australian government statistics on deaths caused by firearms (1979-2013) and news reports of mass shootings in Australia (1979-May 2016). Changes in intentional firearm death rates were analyzed with negative binomial regression, and data on firearm-related mass killings were compared. EXPOSURES: Implementation of major national gun law reforms. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Changes in mass fatal shooting incidents (defined as ≥5 victims, not including the perpetrator) and in trends of rates of total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and suicides, and total homicides and suicides per 100,000 population. RESULTS: From 1979-1996 (before gun law reforms), 13 fatal mass shootings occurred in Australia, whereas from 1997 through May 2016 (after gun law reforms), no fatal mass shootings occurred. There was also significant change in the preexisting downward trends for rates of total firearm deaths prior to vs after gun law reform. From 1979-1996, the mean rate of total firearm deaths was 3.6 (95% CI, 3.3-3.9) per 100,000 population (average decline of 3% per year; annual trend, 0.970; 95% CI, 0.963-0.976), whereas from 1997-2013 (after gun law reforms), the mean rate of total firearm deaths was 1.2 (95% CI, 1.0-1.4) per 100,000 population (average decline of 4.9% per year; annual trend, 0.951; 95% CI, 0.940-0.962), with a ratio of trends in annual death rates of 0.981 (95% CI, 0.968-0.993). There was a statistically significant acceleration in the preexisting downward trend for firearm suicide (ratio of trends, 0.981; 95% CI, 0.970-0.993), but this was not statistically significant for firearm homicide (ratio of trends, 0.975; 95% CI, 0.949-1.001). From 1979-1996, the mean annual rate of total nonfirearm suicide and homicide deaths was 10.6 (95% CI, 10.0-11.2) per 100,000 population (average increase of 2.1% per year; annual trend, 1.021; 95% CI, 1.016-1.026), whereas from 1997-2013, the mean annual rate was 11.8 (95% CI, 11.3-12.3) per 100,000 (average decline of 1.4% per year; annual trend, 0.986; 95% CI, 0.980-0.993), with a ratio of trends of 0.966 (95% CI, 0.958-0.973). There was no evidence of substitution of other lethal methods for suicides or homicides. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Following enactment of gun law reforms in Australia in 1996, there were no mass firearm killings through May 2016. There was a more rapid decline in firearm deaths between 1997 and 2013 compared with before 1997 but also a decline in total nonfirearm suicide and homicide deaths of a greater magnitude. Because of this, it is not possible to determine whether the change in firearm deaths can be attributed to the gun law reforms.
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Authors: Mohsen Naghavi; Laurie B Marczak; Michael Kutz; Katya Anne Shackelford; Megha Arora; Molly Miller-Petrie; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Nadia Akseer; Rajaa M Al-Raddadi; Khurshid Alam; Suliman A Alghnam; Carl Abelardo T Antonio; Olatunde Aremu; Amit Arora; Mohsen Asadi-Lari; Reza Assadi; Tesfay Mehari Atey; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; James R Bennett; Ashish Bhalla; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Arebu Issa Bilal; Guilherme Borges; Rohan Borschmann; Alexandra Brazinova; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Paul I Dargan; Diego De Leo; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Eric L Ding; Huyen Phuc Do; David Teye Doku; Kerrie E Doyle; Tim Robert Driscoll; Dumessa Edessa; Ziad El-Khatib; Aman Yesuf Endries; Alireza Esteghamati; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Valery L Feigin; Florian Fischer; Kyle J Foreman; Richard Charles Franklin; Nancy Fullman; Neal D Futran; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Reyna Alma Gutiérrez; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Hassan Haghparast Bidgoli; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Josep Maria Haro; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Caitlin Hawley; Delia Hendrie; Martha Híjar; Guoqing Hu; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Spencer L James; Sudha Jayaraman; Jost B Jonas; Amaha Kahsay; Amir Kasaeian; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Yousef Khader; Ibrahim A Khalil; Young-Ho Khang; Jagdish Khubchandani; Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri; Christian Kieling; Yun Jin Kim; Soewarta Kosen; Kristopher J Krohn; G Anil Kumar; Faris Hasan Lami; Van C Lansingh; Heidi Jane Larson; Shai Linn; Raimundas Lunevicius; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Amanda J Mason-Jones; Richard Matzopoulos; Peter T N Memiah; Walter Mendoza; Tuomo J Meretoja; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Ted R Miller; Shafiu Mohammed; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Rintaro Mori; Devina Nand; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Quyen Le Nguyen; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Andrew T Olagunju; George C Patton; Michael R Phillips; Suzanne Polinder; Farshad Pourmalek; Mostafa Qorbani; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Ali Rowhani-Rahbar; Mahdi Safdarian; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Joseph S Salama; Juan Sanabria; Milena M Santric Milicevic; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez; Benn Sartorius; Maheswar Satpathy; David C Schwebel; Soraya Seedat; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Masood Ali Shaikh; Nigussie Tadesse Sharew; Ivy Shiue; Jasvinder A Singh; Mekonnen Sisay; Vegard Skirbekk; Adauto Martins Soares Filho; Dan J Stein; Mark Andrew Stokes; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Mamta Swaroop; Bryan L Sykes; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Fentaw Tadese; Bach Xuan Tran; Tung Thanh Tran; Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Vasily Vlassov; Andrea Werdecker; Pengpeng Ye; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z Younis; Zoubida Zaidi; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Simon I Hay; Stephen S Lim; Alan D Lopez; Ali H Mokdad; Theo Vos; Christopher J L Murray Journal: JAMA Date: 2018-08-28 Impact factor: 56.272