| Literature DB >> 27277939 |
Yuanping Zhao1,2, Lijing Ji3, Jian Liu1, Juefei Wu1, Yan Wang1, Shuxin Shen1, Shengcun Guo1, Rong Jian1, Gangbin Chen1, Xuan Wei1, Wangjun Liao4, Shelby Kutty5, Yulin Liao1, Jianping Bin1.
Abstract
The intensity of left atrial spontaneous echo contrast (LASEC) by transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) has been proposed as an important variable in the stratification of thromboembolic risk, particularly in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). We hypothesized that the quantification of LASEC by ultrasound will improve its utility in predicting subsequent stroke events in patients with NVAF. Patients (n = 206) with definite NVAF receiving TEE were included for this prospective cohort study. Baseline clinical risk factors of stroke, CHADS2 score and CHA2DS2-Vasc, left atrial thrombus (LAT), the five-grades of LASEC and video intensity (VI) value of LASEC were measured. During 2 years follow-up, 20 patients (9.7%) developed stroke. VI value of LASEC in the patients with stroke was higher compared to patients without stroke (25.30 ± 3.61 vs. 8.65 ± 0.81, p < 0.001). On logistic regression analysis, LAT, qualitative LASEC, graded LASEC, VI value of LASEC and CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-Vasc score were independent predictors of stroke. Among them, the highest area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) in predicting stroke was VI value of LASEC (p < 0.05). These results show that quantification of LASEC by VI value is the most favorable predictor of stroke in patients with NVAF, and calls for improving the utility of LASEC in predicting subsequent stroke events.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2016 PMID: 27277939 PMCID: PMC4899705 DOI: 10.1038/srep27650
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Sci Rep ISSN: 2045-2322 Impact factor: 4.379
Figure 1Diagram of inclusion and exclusion of the study population.
TEE, transesophageal echocardiography. AF, atrial fibrillation. *Exclusion criteria (see text for details).
Baseline clinical and echocardiographic characteristics according to stroke event (primary endpoint).
| Stroke (n = 20) | Non-stroke (n = 186) | p value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demographics | |||
| Male | 11 (55.0%) | 129 (69.4%) | 0.192 |
| Age, y | 54.90 ± 11.52 | 53.85 ± 11.87 | 0.258 |
| Clinical data | |||
| Smoking | 5 (25.0%) | 35 (18.8%) | 0.552 |
| DM | 4 (20.0%) | 27 (14.5%) | 0.529 |
| Hypertension | 13 (65.0%) | 132 (71.0%) | 0.579 |
| Hyperlipidemia | 6 (30.0%) | 40 (21.5%) | 0.401 |
| CAD | 1 (5.0%) | 16 (8.6%) | 0.553 |
| HF | 6 (30.0%) | 41 (22.0%) | 0.434 |
| NPAF | 11 (55.0%) | 65 (34.9%) | 0.077 |
| EF | 63.31 ± 9.18 | 63.46 ± 8.19 | 0.937 |
| LAD | 42.85 ± 6.10 | 42.73 ± 7.62 | 0.946 |
| LASEC | 15 (75.0%) | 68 (36.6%) | 0.001* |
| LAT | 7 (35.0%) | 10 (5.4%) | 0.000* |
| CHADS2 | 1.50 ± 1.10 | 0.87 ± 0.85 | 0.022* |
| CHA2DS2-Vasc | 2.65 ± 1.42 | 1.58 ± 1.25 | 0.000* |
| Anticoagulant drugs use | |||
| Warfarin | 11 (55.0%) | 82 (44.1%) | 0.351 |
DM: Diabetes mellitus; CAD: Coronary artery disease; HF: Heart failure; NPAF: Non-paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (including persistent atrial fibrillation and permanent atrial fibrillation); EF: Ejection fraction; LAD: Left atrial diameter; LASEC: Left atrial spontaneous echo contrast; LAT: Left atrial thrombus; CHADS2: Congestive heart failure (1), Hypertension (1), Age ≥75 (1), Diabetes (1), prior Stroke (2); CHA2DS2-Vasc: Congestive heart failure (1), Hypertension (1), Age ≥75 (2), Diabetes (1), prior Stroke (2), Vascular disease (1), Age 65–74 (1), Sex category(1). *p < 0.05.
Figure 2Two-dimensional ultrasonogram and the corresponding color coded map of different grades of LASEC (a) Quantification of VI value in patients with each of five grades of LASEC (b) *p < 0.05.
Figure 3Relation between stroke incidence and grades of LASEC, or its VI value.
(a) Stroke incidence of patients with different grades of LASEC; *p < 0.05 vs. grade 0, #p < 0.05 vs. grade 1. (b) VI value distribution of patients with or without stroke *p < 0.01.
Results of the multivariate logistic regression models showing the independent predictors for stroke.
| Variable | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| p value, OR (95% CI) | p value, OR (95% CI) | p value, OR (95% CI) | p value, OR (95% CI) | |
| Smoking | 0.464, 0.60 (0.15–2.36) | 0.254, 0.42 (0.10–1.86) | 0.303, 0.44 (0.09–2.09) | 0.401, 0.53 (0.12–2.32) |
| AF | 0.169, 2.18 (0.72–6.60) | 0.490, 1.52 (0.46–5.03) | 0.435, 0.52 (0.10–2.68) | 0.666, 0.73 (0.17–3.11) |
| CAD | 0.730, 0.65 (0.06–7.51) | 0.666, 0.58 (0.05–6.81) | 0.550, 0.45 (0.03–6.30) | 0.559, 0.48 (0.04–5.77) |
| CRP | 0.744, 0.99 (0.96–1.03) | 0.727, 1.01 (0.97–1.04) | 0.832, 1.01 (0.96–1.05) | 0.998, 1.00 (0.96–1.04) |
| Fibrinogen | 0.775, 1.10 (0.57–2.14) | 0.986,1.01 (0.53–1.93) | 0.955, 0.98 (0.474–2.02) | 0.795, 0.91(.46–1.81) |
| BNP | 0.241, 1.00 (1.00–1.001) | 0.419, 1.00 (1.00–1.001) | 0.982,1.00 (1.00–1.001) | 0.793, 1.00 (1.00–1.001) |
| BUA | 0.747, 1.00 (1.00–1.01) | 0.948, 1.00 (0.99–1.01) | 0.990, 1.00 (0.99–1.01) | 0.784, 1.00 (1.00–1.01) |
| LDL | 0.960, 1.02 (0.54–1.93) | 0.716, 1.02 (0.44–1.75) | 0.498, 0.76 (0.35–1.67) | 0.641, 0.84 (0.39–1.79) |
| EF | 0.705, 0.99 (0.92–1.06) | 0.935, 1.00 (0.93–1.07) | 0.579, 1.02 (0.95–1.11) | 0.855, 1.01 (0.94–1.09) |
| LA | 0.329, 0.96 (0.89–1.04) | 0.083, 0.93 (0.85–1.01) | 0.046, 0.91 (0.83–1.00) | 0.096, 0.93 (0.85–1.01) |
| MVe | 0.676, 1.00 (0.97–1.02) | 0.421, 0.99 (0.96–1.02) | 0.454, 0.99 (0.96–1.02) | 0.686, 0.99 (0.97–1.02) |
| LAT | 0.069, 3.68 (0.90–14.98) | 0.586, 1.57 (0.31–7.98) | 0.609, 1.53 (0.30–7.85) | |
| CHADS2 | 0.090 | |||
| CHADS2(score 1) | 0.519, 0.62 (0.15–2.65) | 0.542, 0.63 (0.14–2.81) | 0.332, 0.44 (0.08–2.33) | 0.401, 0.50 (0.10–2.51) |
| CHADS2(score 2) | 0.076, 3.72 (0.87–15.93) | 0.047, 4.75 (1.02–22.06) | 0.055, 5.27 (0.96–28.82) | 0.071, 4.12 (0.88–19.25) |
| CHADS2(score 3) | 0.096, 4.39 (0.77–25.11) | |||
| CHADS2(score 4) | 1.000, 0.00 | 1.000, 0.00 | 1.000, 0.00 | 1.000, 0.00 |
| VI value | ||||
| Qualitative LASEC | ||||
| Graded LASEC | ||||
| LASEC grade 1 | 0.112, 5.16 (0.68–39.16) | |||
| LASEC grade 2 | 0.071, 7.23 (0.85–61.73) | |||
| LASEC grade 3 | ||||
| LASEC grade 4 | ||||
| Constant | 0.585, 0.16 | 0.987,0.95 | 0.808, 2.78 | 0.957, 1.24 |
AF: atrial fibrillation; CAD: coronary artery disease; CRP: C reactive protein; BUA: blood uric acid; EF: ejection fraction; LA: left atrium; MVe: Mitral valve E; LAT: left atrial thrombus. CHADS2: Congestive heart failure (1), Hypertension (1), Age ≥75 (1), Diabetes (1), prior Stroke (2). For model 1, Smoking, AF, CAD, CRP, fibrinogen, BNP, BUA, LDL, EF, LA, MVe, LAT, and CHADS2 were all entered into this multivariable model. For model 2, model 1 plus qualitative LASEC were all entered into this multivariable model. For model 3, model 1 plus graded LASEC were all entered into this multivariable model. For model 4, model 1 plus VI value of LASEC were all entered into this multivariable model.
Figure 4ROC curves analysis of VI value, Graded-LASEC (G-LASEC), CHA2DS2-Vasc, qualitative LASEC (Q-LASEC), LAT and CHADS2 in predicting the risk of stroke in patients with NVAF.
Area under the ROC curve (AUC) of five stroke predictor variables.
| Predictor variables | AUC (mean ± SE) | p | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|
| VI value | 0.844 ± 0.041 | 0.000 | 0.764–0.924 |
| Graded LASEC | 0.754 ± 0.065* | 0.000 | 0.627–0.881 |
| CHA2DS2–Vasc | 0.720 ± 0.065# | 0.001 | 0.592–0.848 |
| Qualitative LASEC | 0.692 ± 0.060* | 0.005 | 0.574–0.810 |
| CHADS2 | 0.668 ± 0.073# | 0.014 | 0.525–0.811 |
| Left Atrial Thrombus | 0.648 ± 0.074* | 0.030 | 0.502–0.794 |
*p < 0.01 vs. VI value, #p < 0.05 vs. VI value.