Philipp Mahlknecht1,2, Arno Gasperi3, Peter Willeit1,4,5, Stefan Kiechl1, Heike Stockner1, Johann Willeit1, Gregorio Rungger3, Martin Sawires1, Michael Nocker1, Verena Rastner1, Katherina J Mair1, Anna Hotter1, Werner Poewe6, Klaus Seppi7. 1. Department of Neurology, Innsbruck Medical University, Innsbruck, Austria. 2. Sobell Department of Motor Neuroscience and Movement Disorders, UCL Institute of Neurology, London, United Kingdom. 3. Department of Neurology, Hospital of Bruneck, Bruneck, Italy. 4. King's British Heart Foundation Centre, King's College London, London, United Kingdom. 5. Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom. 6. Department of Neurology, Innsbruck Medical University, Innsbruck, Austria. Werner.Poewe@i-med.ac.at. 7. Department of Neurology, Innsbruck Medical University, Innsbruck, Austria. Klaus.Seppi@tirol-kliniken.at.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Recently, the International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society has defined research criteria for prodromal Parkinson's disease (PD), but to date their predictive value has not yet been tested in population-based cohorts. METHODS: We retrospectively applied these criteria to the longitudinal Bruneck Study cohort aged 55-94 years using recorded data on all included risk and prodromal markers that are quick and easily assessable. RESULTS: After excluding participants with idiopathic PD or secondary parkinsonism, prevalence of probable prodromal PD in the remaining 539 participants was 2.2% (95% confidence interval, 1.2%-3.9%). Of 488 participants followed up over 5 years, 11 developed incident PD. Sensitivity of "probable prodromal PD" status for incident PD was 54.6% (95% confidence interval, 28.0%-78.8%), specificity was 99.2% (97.8%-99.8%), positive predictive value was 60.0% (31.2%-83.3%), and negative predictive value was 99.0% (97.5%-99.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the new research criteria for prodromal PD are a promising tool to identify cases of incident PD over 5 years, arguing for their usefulness in defining target populations for disease-prevention trials.
BACKGROUND: Recently, the International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society has defined research criteria for prodromal Parkinson's disease (PD), but to date their predictive value has not yet been tested in population-based cohorts. METHODS: We retrospectively applied these criteria to the longitudinal Bruneck Study cohort aged 55-94 years using recorded data on all included risk and prodromal markers that are quick and easily assessable. RESULTS: After excluding participants with idiopathic PD or secondary parkinsonism, prevalence of probable prodromal PD in the remaining 539 participants was 2.2% (95% confidence interval, 1.2%-3.9%). Of 488 participants followed up over 5 years, 11 developed incident PD. Sensitivity of "probable prodromal PD" status for incident PD was 54.6% (95% confidence interval, 28.0%-78.8%), specificity was 99.2% (97.8%-99.8%), positive predictive value was 60.0% (31.2%-83.3%), and negative predictive value was 99.0% (97.5%-99.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the new research criteria for prodromal PD are a promising tool to identify cases of incident PD over 5 years, arguing for their usefulness in defining target populations for disease-prevention trials.
Authors: Thomas R Barber; Michael Lawton; Michal Rolinski; Samuel Evetts; Fahd Baig; Claudio Ruffmann; Aimie Gornall; Johannes C Klein; Christine Lo; Gary Dennis; Oliver Bandmann; Timothy Quinnell; Zenobia Zaiwalla; Yoav Ben-Shlomo; Michele T M Hu Journal: Sleep Date: 2017-08-01 Impact factor: 5.849
Authors: Kathrin Doppler; Hanna-Maria Jentschke; Lena Schulmeyer; David Vadasz; Annette Janzen; Markus Luster; Helmut Höffken; Geert Mayer; Joachim Brumberg; Jan Booij; Thomas Musacchio; Stephan Klebe; Elisabeth Sittig-Wiegand; Jens Volkmann; Claudia Sommer; Wolfgang H Oertel Journal: Acta Neuropathol Date: 2017-02-08 Impact factor: 17.088