BACKGROUND: It is of considerable interest to forecast the future burden of mesothelioma mortality. Data on deaths are available, whereas no measure of asbestos exposure is available. METHODS: We compare two Poisson models: a response-only model with an age-cohort specification and a multinomial model with epidemiologically motivated frequencies. RESULTS: The response-only model has 5% higher peak mortality than the dose-response model. The former performs slightly better in out-of-sample comparison. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality is predicted to peak at about 2100 deaths around 2017 among males in cohorts until 1966 and below 90 years of age. The response-only model is a simple benchmark that forecasts just as well as more complicated models. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
BACKGROUND: It is of considerable interest to forecast the future burden of mesothelioma mortality. Data on deaths are available, whereas no measure of asbestos exposure is available. METHODS: We compare two Poisson models: a response-only model with an age-cohort specification and a multinomial model with epidemiologically motivated frequencies. RESULTS: The response-only model has 5% higher peak mortality than the dose-response model. The former performs slightly better in out-of-sample comparison. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality is predicted to peak at about 2100 deaths around 2017 among males in cohorts until 1966 and below 90 years of age. The response-only model is a simple benchmark that forecasts just as well as more complicated models. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
Authors: Zhenzhen Lu; Weidong Ji; Yi Yin; Xinye Jin; Lu Wang; Zhongjie Li; Ning Wang; Kai Wang; Zhihang Peng Journal: BMC Public Health Date: 2021-06-05 Impact factor: 3.295
Authors: Enrico Oddone; Jordy Bollon; Consuelo Rubina Nava; Marcella Bugani; Dario Consonni; Alessandro Marinaccio; Corrado Magnani; Francesco Barone-Adesi Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2020-01-17 Impact factor: 3.390