'The past is the future of the present': Learning from long-time series of marine monitoring.

Using a long-term (1995-2014) monitoring network, from 51 sampling stations in estuaries and coasts of the Basque Country (Bay of Biscay), the objective of this investigation was to assess the responsiveness of 83 variables in water (18), sediments (27), biota (26), phytoplankton (2), macroinvertebrates (5) and fishes (5) to different human pressures and management actions. We used a total of 3247 series of data to analyse trends of improvement and worsening in quality. In a high percentage of the cases, the management actions taken have resulted in positive effects in the environment, as shown by the trend analysis in this investigation. Overall, much more trends of improvement than of worsening have been observed; this is true for almost all the media and biological components studied, with the exception of phytoplankton; and it applies as well to almost all the stations and water bodies, with the exception of those corresponding to areas with water treatment pending of accomplishment. In estuaries with decreasing human pressures during the period, the percentage of series showing quality improvement was higher (approx. 30%) than those showing worsening of quality (12%). Moreover, in those water bodies showing an increase of pressure, variables which can be considered indicators of anthropogenic effects showed negative trends (quality worsening). On the other hand, some of the variables analysed were more affected by natural variability than by changes in pressures. That was the case of silicate, nitrate and suspended solids, which followed trends correlated to salinity, which, in turn, was related to the rainfall regime during the study period.