AIM: To estimate the progression of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic and measure the burden of HCV-related morbidity and mortality. METHODS: Age- and gender-defined cohorts were used to follow the viremic population in Argentina and estimate HCV incidence, prevalence, hepatic complications, and mortality. The relative impact of two scenarios on HCV-related outcomes was assessed: (1) increased sustained virologic response (SVR); and (2) increased SVR and treatment. RESULTS: Under scenario 1, SVR raised to 85%-95% in 2016. Compared to the base case scenario, there was a 0.3% reduction in prevalent cases and liver-related deaths by 2030. Given low treatment rates, cases of hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis decreased < 1%, in contrast to the base case in 2030. Under scenario 2, the same increases in SVR were modeled, with gradual increases in the annual diagnosed and treated populations. This scenario decreased prevalent infections 45%, liver-related deaths 55%, liver cancer cases 60%, and decompensated cirrhosis 55%, as compared to the base case by 2030. CONCLUSION: In Argentina, cases of end stage liver disease and liver-related deaths due to HCV are still growing, while its prevalence is decreasing. Increasing in SVR rates is not enough, and increasing in the number of patients diagnosed and candidates for treatment is needed to reduce the HCV disease burden. Based on this scenario, strategies to increase diagnosis and treatment uptake must be developed to reduce HCV burden in Argentina.
AIM: To estimate the progression of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic and measure the burden of HCV-related morbidity and mortality. METHODS: Age- and gender-defined cohorts were used to follow the viremic population in Argentina and estimate HCV incidence, prevalence, hepatic complications, and mortality. The relative impact of two scenarios on HCV-related outcomes was assessed: (1) increased sustained virologic response (SVR); and (2) increased SVR and treatment. RESULTS: Under scenario 1, SVR raised to 85%-95% in 2016. Compared to the base case scenario, there was a 0.3% reduction in prevalent cases and liver-related deaths by 2030. Given low treatment rates, cases of hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis decreased < 1%, in contrast to the base case in 2030. Under scenario 2, the same increases in SVR were modeled, with gradual increases in the annual diagnosed and treated populations. This scenario decreased prevalent infections 45%, liver-related deaths 55%, liver cancer cases 60%, and decompensated cirrhosis 55%, as compared to the base case by 2030. CONCLUSION: In Argentina, cases of end stage liver disease and liver-related deaths due to HCV are still growing, while its prevalence is decreasing. Increasing in SVR rates is not enough, and increasing in the number of patients diagnosed and candidates for treatment is needed to reduce the HCV disease burden. Based on this scenario, strategies to increase diagnosis and treatment uptake must be developed to reduce HCV burden in Argentina.
Authors: Paul K Nelson; Bradley M Mathers; Benjamin Cowie; Holly Hagan; Don Des Jarlais; Danielle Horyniak; Louisa Degenhardt Journal: Lancet Date: 2011-07-27 Impact factor: 79.321
Authors: V Saraswat; S Norris; R J de Knegt; J F Sanchez Avila; M Sonderup; E Zuckerman; P Arkkila; C Stedman; S Acharya; I Aho; A C Anand; M I Andersson; V Arendt; O Baatarkhuu; K Barclay; Z Ben-Ari; C Bergin; F Bessone; S Blach; N Blokhina; C R Brunton; G Choudhuri; V Chulanov; L Cisneros; E A Croes; Y A Dahgwahdorj; O Dalgard; J R Daruich; N R Dashdorj; D Davaadorj; M de Vree; C Estes; R Flisiak; A C Gadano; E Gane; W Halota; A Hatzakis; C Henderson; P Hoffmann; J Hornell; D Houlihan; S Hrusovsky; P Jarčuška; D Kershenobich; K Kostrzewska; P Kristian; M Leshno; Y Lurie; A Mahomed; N Mamonova; N Mendez-Sanchez; J Mossong; E Nurmukhametova; P Nymadawa; M Oltman; J Oyunbileg; Ts Oyunsuren; G Papatheodoridis; N Pimenov; N Prabdial-Sing; M Prins; P Puri; S Radke; A Rakhmanova; H Razavi; K Razavi-Shearer; H W Reesink; E Ridruejo; R Safadi; O Sagalova; R Sanduijav; I Schréter; C Seguin-Devaux; S R Shah; I Shestakova; A Shevaldin; O Shibolet; S Sokolov; K Souliotis; C W Spearman; T Staub; E A Strebkova; D Struck; K Tomasiewicz; L Undram; A J van der Meer; D van Santen; I Veldhuijzen; F G Villamil; S Willemse; F R Zuure; M O Silva; V Sypsa; E Gower Journal: J Viral Hepat Date: 2015-01 Impact factor: 3.728
Authors: Bryce D Smith; Rebecca L Morgan; Geoff A Beckett; Yngve Falck-Ytter; Deborah Holtzman; Chong-Gee Teo; Amy Jewett; Brittney Baack; David B Rein; Nita Patel; Miriam Alter; Anthony Yartel; John W Ward Journal: MMWR Recomm Rep Date: 2012-08-17
Authors: Matthew Hickman; Zenobia Carnwath; Peter Madden; Michael Farrell; Cleone Rooney; Richard Ashcroft; Ali Judd; Gerry Stimson Journal: J Urban Health Date: 2003-06 Impact factor: 3.671
Authors: Robert P Myers; Mel Krajden; Marc Bilodeau; Kelly Kaita; Paul Marotta; Kevork Peltekian; Alnoor Ramji; Chris Estes; Homie Razavi; Morris Sherman Journal: Can J Gastroenterol Hepatol Date: 2014-05
Authors: K Neukam; E Ridruejo; P Pérez; R H Campos; A P Martínez; F A Di Lello Journal: Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis Date: 2017-10-27 Impact factor: 3.267