AIDS in Mexico: trends and projections.

The first case of AIDS in Mexico was reported in 1981. Through mid-1988, 1,502 cases had been reported, the incidence of cases having doubled every 7.7 months. Of the cases in adults, 87.6% were sexually transmitted, transfusion with contaminated blood or blood products accounted for 10.8%, and intravenous drug abuse for 0.3%. In the 56 pediatric AIDS cases reported, transmission through contaminated blood accounted for 67.9%, sexual contact for 5.4%, and perinatal transmission for 19.6%. The disease appears to be spreading from the large cities to peripheral and rural areas, and to be spreading faster among heterosexuals than among homosexual and bisexual males. Projections based on continued exponential doubling at the 1983-1986 rate suggest the cumulative AIDS case total could exceed 75,000 by the end of 1991. More conservative estimates based on an observed lengthening of the doubling time predict as many as 260,000 cases by the end of 1994.