| Literature DB >> 27178476 |
Cassie Aldridge1, Julian Bion2, Amunpreet Boyal3, Yen-Fu Chen4, Mike Clancy5, Tim Evans6, Alan Girling1, Joanne Lord7, Russell Mannion1, Peter Rees8, Chris Roseveare9, Gavin Rudge1, Jianxia Sun3, Carolyn Tarrant10, Mark Temple11, Sam Watson4, Richard Lilford4.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Increased mortality rates associated with weekend hospital admission (the so-called weekend effect) have been attributed to suboptimum staffing levels of specialist consultants. However, evidence for a causal association is elusive, and the magnitude of the weekend specialist deficit remains unquantified. This uncertainty could hamper efforts by national health systems to introduce 7 day health services. We aimed to examine preliminary associations between specialist intensity and weekend admission mortality across the English National Health Service.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2016 PMID: 27178476 PMCID: PMC4945602 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30442-1
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Lancet ISSN: 0140-6736 Impact factor: 79.321
Specialist intensity and weekend mortality, by trust size quintile
| Number of trusts | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 115 |
| Sunday admissions, 2013–14 | 43 (38–54) | 63 (57–74) | 84 (72–97) | 94 (80–111) | 132 (119,161) | 80 (57–106) |
| Wednesday admissions, 2013–14 | 54 (45–64) | 81 (67–91) | 100 (91,112) | 110 (99,132) | 162 (144–196) | 95 (69–128) |
| Clinicians surveyed | 3168 | 4210 | 5807 | 8572 | 12 593 | 34 350 |
| Responders | 1480 (47%) | 2013 (48%) | 2465 (42%) | 3857 (45%) | 5722 (45%) | 15 537 (45%) |
| Specialist responders | 1362 (92%) | 1873 (93%) | 2304 (93%) | 3598 (93%) | 5395 (94%) | 14 532 (94%) |
| Exclusions | 118 (8%) | 140 (7%) | 161 (7%) | 259 (7%) | 327 (6%) | 1005 (6%) |
| Number (% of specialist responders) | 157/1362 (12%) | 220/1873 (12%) | 273/2304 (12%) | 430/3598 (12%) | 587/5395 (11%) | 1667/14 532 (11%) |
| Hours per specialist present | 6·22 (3·46) | 5·61 (3·22) | 6·18 (3·37) | 5·73 (3·45) | 5·46 (3·38) | 5·74 (3·39) |
| Specialist intensity | 20·33 (14·59–27·02) | 15·07 (9·50–26·99) | 22·83 (16·02–29·33) | 24·74 (19·15–30·16) | 21·49 (15·28–30·18) | 21·90 (15·07–29·00) |
| Number (% of specialist responders) | 593/1362 (44%) | 855/1873 (46%) | 961/2304 (42%) | 1549/3598 (43%) | 2147/5395 (40%) | 6105/14 532 (42%) |
| Hours per specialist present | 4·36 (3·47) | 4·00 (3·27) | 4·04 (3·22) | 3·66 (3·18) | 4·06 (3·38) | 3·97 (3·31) |
| Specialist intensity | 43·85 (34·12–52·46) | 37·46 (26·25–56·52) | 39·82 (32·04–49·77) | 43·75 (34·81–56·95) | 46·71 (38·57–71·70) | 42·73 (33·37–55·36) |
| Sunday to Wednesday intensity ratio | 0·44 (0·35–0·58) | 0·43 (0·40–0·53) | 0·55 (0·47–0·67) | 0·49 (0·46–0·63) | 0·46 (0·36–0·53) | 0·48 (0·40–0·58) |
| Weekend mortality odds ratio | 1·09 (1·00–1·25) | 1·10 (1·03–1·14) | 1·11 (1·05–1·19) | 1·11 (1·01–1·20) | 1·10 (1·05–1·13) | 1·10 (1·03–1·17) |
Data are median (IQR), n (%), n/N (%), or mean (SD) unless otherwise specified. PPS=point prevalence survey.
For each trust, emergency admissions are the mean number of Sunday or Wednesday emergency admissions over 2013–14. The median (IQR) refers to variation in these averages across different trusts.
Includes respondents without certificates of completion of specialist training, and two incomplete responses.
Total specialist hours per ten emergency admissions, corrected for response rate.
Figure 1Specialist hours, specialist intensity, and emergency admissions
The figure shows the estimated total hours for specialists attending emergency admissions on Wednesday, June 18, 2014 (A), and Sunday, June 15, 2014 (C), against the mean number of emergency admissions for Wednesdays or Sundays in 2013–14, for the 115 trusts responding to the point prevalence survey; and the specialist intensity measure (hours per ten emergency admissions) against the mean number of admissions for Wednesdays or Sundays (B, D). Pearson correlations (r) and p values are shown.
Figure 2Specialist intensity by trust
For each trust, the bars represent specialist hours per ten emergency admissions from the point prevalence survey for Wednesday, June 18, 2014, and Sunday, June 15, 2014. Trusts are shown in decreasing order of the plotted intensity ratios, defined as the relative sizes of the bars.
Relative odds of in-hospital death by day of admission, adjusted for casemix
| Monday | 1·02 (1·01–1·04) | 0·013 |
| Tuesday | 1·00 (0·98–1·02) | 0·852 |
| Wednesday (reference) | 1 | ·· |
| Thursday | 1·02 (1·00–1·04) | 0·032 |
| Friday | 1·01 (0·99–1·03) | 0·279 |
| Saturday | 1·09 (1·07–1·12) | <0·0001 |
| Sunday | 1·13 (1·10–1·15) | <0·0001 |
| Weekend effect | 1·10 (1·08–1·11) | <0·0001 |
Obtained from the admission day odds ratios, as described in the text.
Figure 3Trust-specific weekend mortality
Mortality odds ratios (in increasing order) for weekend to weekday admissions for the 115 trusts contributing to the point prevalence survey. Bars show 95% CIs from logistic regression analysis.
Figure 4Weekend mortality effects and specialist intensity ratios
Mortality odds ratios for weekend to weekday admissions, and specialist intensity ratios for the 115 trusts contributing to the point prevalence survey. Pearson correlations (r) and p values are shown.