Modeling the temporal variability of zinc concentrations in zinc roof runoff-experimental study and uncertainty analysis.

This study investigates the temporal variability of zinc concentrations from zinc roof runoff. The influence of rainfall characteristics and dry period duration is evaluated by combining laboratory experiment on small zinc sheets and in situ measurements under real weather conditions from a 1.6-m(2) zinc panel. A reformulation of a commonly used conceptual runoff quality model is introduced and its ability to simulate the evolution of zinc concentrations is evaluated. A systematic and sharp decrease from initially high to relatively low and stable zinc concentrations after 0.5 to 2 mm of rainfall is observed for both experiments, suggesting that highly soluble corrosion products are removed at early stages of runoff. A moderate dependence between antecedent dry period duration and the magnitude of zinc concentrations at the beginning of a rain event is evidenced. Contrariwise, results indicate that concentrations are not significantly influenced by rainfall intensities. Simulated rainfall experiment nonetheless suggests that a slight effect of rainfall intensities may be expected after the initial decrease of concentrations. Finally, this study shows that relatively simple conceptual runoff quality models may be adopted to simulate the variability of zinc concentrations during a rain event and from a rain event to another.