D P Holland1, C D Hamilton2, J E Stout3. 1. Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA. 2. Global Health, Population, and Nutrition, FHI306, North Carolina, USA. 3. Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina, USA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Shorter treatment regimens for tuberculosis (TB) are deemed vital for advancing TB control. Murine studies have suggested potential new regimens; however, Phase II human studies of these drug combinations have not shown clear improvement in 2-month culture conversion over current therapy. Nevertheless, drugs such as rifapentine (RPT) may have additional sterilizing effects after 2 months that are difficult to measure in current Phase II studies. OBJECTIVES: To model potential bactericidal effects of RPT in a Phase III trial of a 4-month anti-tuberculosis regimen. METHODS: We developed a Markov model of anti-tuberculosis treatment to compare two regimens for treating TB: a 6-month standard (rifampin-based) treatment and a 4-month regimen using high-dose RPT. The primary outcome was the number of relapses. RESULTS: In the base-case scenario, standard therapy resulted in fewer relapses; improvement in 2-month culture conversion rates in the RPT arm did not change this result. However, while RPT has better sterilizing ability during months 3 and 4 (as observed in the mouse model), the 4-month regimen results in fewer relapses. CONCLUSIONS: Higher 2-month culture conversion rates are neither sufficient nor necessary for making a theoretical 4-month anti-tuberculosis treatment regimen advantageous.
BACKGROUND: Shorter treatment regimens for tuberculosis (TB) are deemed vital for advancing TB control. Murine studies have suggested potential new regimens; however, Phase II human studies of these drug combinations have not shown clear improvement in 2-month culture conversion over current therapy. Nevertheless, drugs such as rifapentine (RPT) may have additional sterilizing effects after 2 months that are difficult to measure in current Phase II studies. OBJECTIVES: To model potential bactericidal effects of RPT in a Phase III trial of a 4-month anti-tuberculosis regimen. METHODS: We developed a Markov model of anti-tuberculosis treatment to compare two regimens for treating TB: a 6-month standard (rifampin-based) treatment and a 4-month regimen using high-dose RPT. The primary outcome was the number of relapses. RESULTS: In the base-case scenario, standard therapy resulted in fewer relapses; improvement in 2-month culture conversion rates in the RPT arm did not change this result. However, while RPT has better sterilizing ability during months 3 and 4 (as observed in the mouse model), the 4-month regimen results in fewer relapses. CONCLUSIONS: Higher 2-month culture conversion rates are neither sufficient nor necessary for making a theoretical 4-month anti-tuberculosis treatment regimen advantageous.
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