David B Goldston1, Alaattin Erkanli2, Stephanie S Daniel3, Nicole Heilbron4, Bridget E Weller4, Otima Doyle5. 1. Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC. Electronic address: david.goldston@duke.edu. 2. Duke University, Durham. 3. Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC. 4. Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC. 5. University of Illinois, Chicago.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Little is known about the patterns among individuals in the long-term course of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STBs). The objective of this study was to identify developmental trajectories of STBs from adolescence through young adulthood, as well as risk and protective covariates, and nonsuicidal outcomes associated with these trajectories. METHOD: A total of 180 adolescents (ages 12-18 years at recruitment) were repeatedly assessed over an average of 13.6 years (2,273 assessments) since their psychiatric hospitalization. Trajectories were based on ratings of STBs at each assessment. Covariates included psychiatric risk factors (proportion of time in episodes of psychiatric disorders, hopelessness, trait anxiety, impulsivity, and aggression in adulthood, sexual and physical abuse, parental history of suicidal behavior), protective factors (survival and coping beliefs, social support in adulthood, parenthood), and nonsuicidal outcomes (social adjustment and functional impairment in adulthood, school drop-out, incarcerations). RESULTS: Using a Bayesian group-based trajectory model, 4 trajectories of STBs were identified: an increasing risk class (11%); a highest overall risk class (12%); a decreasing risk class (33%); and a low risk class (44%). The 4 classes were associated with distinct patterns of correlates in risk and protective factors and nonsuicidal outcomes. CONCLUSION: Adolescents and young adults have heterogeneous developmental trajectories of STBs. These trajectories and their covariates may inform strategies for predicting STBs and targeting interventions for individuals at risk for suicidal behavior.
OBJECTIVE: Little is known about the patterns among individuals in the long-term course of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STBs). The objective of this study was to identify developmental trajectories of STBs from adolescence through young adulthood, as well as risk and protective covariates, and nonsuicidal outcomes associated with these trajectories. METHOD: A total of 180 adolescents (ages 12-18 years at recruitment) were repeatedly assessed over an average of 13.6 years (2,273 assessments) since their psychiatric hospitalization. Trajectories were based on ratings of STBs at each assessment. Covariates included psychiatric risk factors (proportion of time in episodes of psychiatric disorders, hopelessness, trait anxiety, impulsivity, and aggression in adulthood, sexual and physical abuse, parental history of suicidal behavior), protective factors (survival and coping beliefs, social support in adulthood, parenthood), and nonsuicidal outcomes (social adjustment and functional impairment in adulthood, school drop-out, incarcerations). RESULTS: Using a Bayesian group-based trajectory model, 4 trajectories of STBs were identified: an increasing risk class (11%); a highest overall risk class (12%); a decreasing risk class (33%); and a low risk class (44%). The 4 classes were associated with distinct patterns of correlates in risk and protective factors and nonsuicidal outcomes. CONCLUSION: Adolescents and young adults have heterogeneous developmental trajectories of STBs. These trajectories and their covariates may inform strategies for predicting STBs and targeting interventions for individuals at risk for suicidal behavior.
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