Dispersion of the invasive common carp Cyprinus carpio in southern South America: changes and expectations, westward and southward.

Common carp Cyprinus carpio possess multiple traits that contribute to their success as an invasive species. They have been introduced across the globe, and abundant populations can have numerous negative effects. Although ecological niche-based modelling techniques have been used to predict the potential range of C. carpio invasion in U.S.A., occurrence and abundance patterns have not yet been considered on a regional scale. In the present review new locations are documented, the status of the southernmost population has been studied and the probability of new lakes and reservoirs being colonized by C. carpio has been obtained and related to environmental conditions. The new localities for C. carpio have expanded its distribution westward, into the Andean Region, and present results from the South American southernmost population have shown a well-established population. Analysis of presence data provided two principal results: (1) the probability of a site being with C. carpio can be inferred using environmental variables and (2) the probability of a site being with C. carpio is a useful tool for the prediction of future invasions. Selective fishing on the Negro basin could constitute a potential mitigation measure, decreasing the abundance of the species and thus reducing the species' potential for southward expansion. These results reinforce the idea that artisanal fisheries, food production and conservation interests should be taken into account by local government management agencies in any discussion regarding the southern distribution of C. carpio in the near future.