Probability of relapse after recovery from an episode of depression.

Examined relapse rates in those individuals who have experienced an episode of unipolar depression as a function of the number of previous episodes, gender, age at onset of the episode (less than 40 vs. greater than 40), time since a previous episode, and depression level at time of interview. From of 6,742 participants, 2,046 were interviewed; of these, 1,130 had at least one, 513 reported a second and 173 reported a third episode. The probability for relapse was positively related to number of previous episodes, being female, depression level at time of interview, but not to age at onset (less than 40 vs. greater than 40). Women were also more likely to have more severe episodes. Participants with elevated depression symptoms reported a greater number of previous episodes. Following the first episode, there was a decline in hazard rate for men but not women; following the second episode, there was no change in vulnerability for men; for women, the results were ambiguous.