Living with avian FLU--Persistence of the H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in Egypt.

H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) continues to cause mortality in poultry and threaten human health at a panzootic scale in Egypt since it was reported in 2006. While the early focus has been in Asia, recent evidence suggests that Egypt is an emerging epicenter for the disease. Despite control measures, epizootic transmission of the disease continues. Here, we investigate the persistence of HPAIV across wild passerine birds and domestic poultry between 2009 and 2012 and the potential risk for continuous viral transmission in Egypt. We use a new weighted cross J-function to investigate the degree and spatial temporal nature of the clustering between sightings of infected birds of different types, and the risk of infection associated with direct contact with infected birds. While we found no infection in wild birds, outbreaks occurred year round between 2009 and 2012, with a positive interaction between chickens and ducks. The disease was more present in the years 2010 and 2011 coinciding with the political unrest in the country. Egypt thus continues to experience endemic outbreaks of avian influenza HPAIV in poultry and an increased potential risk of infection to other species including humans. With the current trends, the elimination of the HPAIV infection is highly unlikely without a complete revamp of current policies. The application of spatial statistics techniques to these types of data may help us to understand the characteristics of the disease and may subsequently allow practitioners to explore possible preventive solutions.