BACKGROUND & AIMS: Several hepatitis B virus (HBV) markers have been identified as factors associated with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We clarified the predictive power of HBV markers for the development of HCC using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis with a consideration of time dependence. METHODS: A total of 1031 CHB patients who were not treated with nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy were enrolled. Univariate, multivariate, and time-dependent ROC curves for HBV markers associated with the development of HCC were analyzed. RESULTS: Seventy-eight patients developed HCC during the follow-up period (median duration 10.7years). Different levels or statuses of several HBV markers (HBV genotype, HBV DNA, HBV core-related antigen (HBcrAg), hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg), and basal core promoter (BCP)), but not hepatitis B surface antigen, were significantly associated with the incidence of HCC by univariate analysis using the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards models using the covariates of HBV genotype status, HBV DNA levels, HBcrAg levels, HBeAg status, and BCP status indicated that HBcrAg >2.9logU/ml (hazard ratio (HR), 5.05; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.40-10.63) and BCP mutation (HR, 28.85; 95% CI, 4.00-208.20) were independently associated with the incidence of HCC. Additionally, time-dependent ROC analysis showed that HBcrAg was superior to HBV DNA in terms of predictive power for HCC development throughout the follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: Elevation of HBcrAg levels in CHB patients is associated with the development of HCC. HBcrAg is an excellent predictor of HCC development. LAY SUMMARY: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) core-related antigen (HBcrAg) is an excellent predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in chronic hepatitis B patients without nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy. HBcrAg was superior to HBV DNA in terms of predictive power for HCC development by time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis.
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Several hepatitis B virus (HBV) markers have been identified as factors associated with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We clarified the predictive power of HBV markers for the development of HCC using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis with a consideration of time dependence. METHODS: A total of 1031 CHB patients who were not treated with nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy were enrolled. Univariate, multivariate, and time-dependent ROC curves for HBV markers associated with the development of HCC were analyzed. RESULTS: Seventy-eight patients developed HCC during the follow-up period (median duration 10.7years). Different levels or statuses of several HBV markers (HBV genotype, HBV DNA, HBV core-related antigen (HBcrAg), hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg), and basal core promoter (BCP)), but not hepatitis B surface antigen, were significantly associated with the incidence of HCC by univariate analysis using the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards models using the covariates of HBV genotype status, HBV DNA levels, HBcrAg levels, HBeAg status, and BCP status indicated that HBcrAg >2.9logU/ml (hazard ratio (HR), 5.05; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.40-10.63) and BCP mutation (HR, 28.85; 95% CI, 4.00-208.20) were independently associated with the incidence of HCC. Additionally, time-dependent ROC analysis showed that HBcrAg was superior to HBV DNA in terms of predictive power for HCC development throughout the follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: Elevation of HBcrAg levels in CHB patients is associated with the development of HCC. HBcrAg is an excellent predictor of HCC development. LAY SUMMARY:Hepatitis B virus (HBV) core-related antigen (HBcrAg) is an excellent predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in chronic hepatitis Bpatients without nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy. HBcrAg was superior to HBV DNA in terms of predictive power for HCC development by time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis.
Authors: Carla S Coffin; Scott K Fung; Fernando Alvarez; Curtis L Cooper; Karen E Doucette; Claire Fournier; Erin Kelly; Hin Hin Ko; Mang M Ma; Steven R Martin; Carla Osiowy; Alnoor Ramji; Edward Tam; Jean Pierre Villeneuve Journal: Can Liver J Date: 2018-12-25