Chia-Yang Hsu1,2,3, Po-Hong Liu1,2, Cheng-Yuan Hsia2,4, Yun-Hsuan Lee1,2, Alhareth Al Juboori3, Rheun-Chuan Lee2,5, Han-Chieh Lin1,2, Teh-Ia Huo6,7,8. 1. Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan. 2. Faculty of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University School of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan. 3. Department of Internal Medicine, University of Nevada School of Medicine, Reno, NV, USA. 4. Department of Surgery, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan. 5. Department of Radiology, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan. 6. Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan. tihuo@vghtpe.gov.tw. 7. Faculty of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University School of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan. tihuo@vghtpe.gov.tw. 8. Institute of Pharmacology, National Yang-Ming University School of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan. tihuo@vghtpe.gov.tw.
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS: The predictive accuracy of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system on a single patient is not clear. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict individualized survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) based on the BCLC system. METHODS: A total of 3179 patients were randomly grouped into derivation (n = 2119) and validation (n = 1060) sets. The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to generate the nomogram from tumour burden, cirrhosis and performance status (PS). The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by concordance indices and calibration tests. RESULTS: Beta coefficients from the Cox model were used to assign nomogram points to different degrees of tumour burden, Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification and PS. A nomogram with a scale of 0-26 was developed and the predicted survival rates at 3 and 5 years were calculated. The derivation set had a concordance index of 0.766 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.686-0.838); and the validation set showed a concordance index of 0.775 (95% CI: 0.607-0.909). The calibration plots were close to the 45-degree line for 3- and 5-year survival prediction of BCLC stages 0-C patients in both derivation and validation groups. For BCLC stage D patients, calibration plots in both groups showed deviation from the 45-degree line for 3- and 5-year prediction. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides quantitative evidence to support the prognostic ability of BCLC system. This straightforward and easy-to-use nomogram may accurately predict the survival at 3 and 5 years for individual HCC patient except for BCLC stage D patients.
BACKGROUND & AIMS: The predictive accuracy of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system on a single patient is not clear. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict individualized survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) based on the BCLC system. METHODS: A total of 3179 patients were randomly grouped into derivation (n = 2119) and validation (n = 1060) sets. The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to generate the nomogram from tumour burden, cirrhosis and performance status (PS). The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by concordance indices and calibration tests. RESULTS: Beta coefficients from the Cox model were used to assign nomogram points to different degrees of tumour burden, Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification and PS. A nomogram with a scale of 0-26 was developed and the predicted survival rates at 3 and 5 years were calculated. The derivation set had a concordance index of 0.766 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.686-0.838); and the validation set showed a concordance index of 0.775 (95% CI: 0.607-0.909). The calibration plots were close to the 45-degree line for 3- and 5-year survival prediction of BCLC stages 0-C patients in both derivation and validation groups. For BCLC stage D patients, calibration plots in both groups showed deviation from the 45-degree line for 3- and 5-year prediction. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides quantitative evidence to support the prognostic ability of BCLC system. This straightforward and easy-to-use nomogram may accurately predict the survival at 3 and 5 years for individual HCC patient except for BCLC stage D patients.